4516 Mattson Ln SE · Lacey, WA 98503

$280,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 2014 3,049 sqft lot $292/sqft · 33% below area Est $419k · 33% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable homeownership opportunity just 1 block away from the Chehalis Trail. This light filled 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom charmer offers just under 1,000 sqft with vaulted ceilings, open concept layout, and generously sized bedrooms. Fresh laminate flooring throughout, move-in ready condition. Located in a friendly community with playground areas, close to shopping and dining. Stop renting and start building equity in a home designed for real people on real budgets. Specific median income limits apply—this is your chance to own, not just dream.

Key facts

• Playground areas
• Open concept layout
• 3,049 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MOVE-IN READY CONDITION
• PLAYGROUND AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-521 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $188,429 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.98%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,679
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -33.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4925 41st Ln SE	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,101 (+15%)	2mo	$331,000	$301	51
2713 College St SE	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,072 (+12%)	13mo	$425,000	$396	34
4713 Stikes Dr SE	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,078 (+12%)	11mo	$455,000	$422	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,440
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-105,463
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,544

Max offer price $204,549

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3307 College St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	865	$1,700	$1.97	13d	3	0.27mi
3301 College St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,845	$2.05	21d	1	0.33mi
4625 45th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	975	$2,030	$2.08	13d	21	0.52mi
4950 51st Ln SE Unit F-201 Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	975	$1,650	$1.69	21d	1	0.83mi
4435 Ruddell Rd SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	856	$2,000	$2.34	13d	1	0.95mi
5649 46th Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	21d	1	0.98mi
2700 Ruddell Rd SE Unit 2740-B Lacey, WA	2.0	1.5	1054	$1,695	$1.61	43d	1	1.07mi
2570 Ruddell Rd SE Lacey, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,438	$1.80	21d	2	1.08mi
5701 30th Ave SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	899	$1,503	$1.67	13d	2	1.08mi
3539 Landview Dr SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1314	$2,295	$1.75	13d	19	1.21mi
3425 Polo Club Ln SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,025	$2.17	13d	9	1.35mi
4314 14th Way SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	938	$2,500	$2.67	43d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $280,000 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-03-12
    price $280,000
17. 2026-01-28
    price $299,000
18. 2026-01-20
    price $324,000
19. 2026-01-12
    price $335,000
20. 2025-12-30
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$11,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $280,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $299,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $324,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $335,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listed $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-14.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $405 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.