7433 West Cir NE · Fridley, MN 55432

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 181 Days on market

Built 2012 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2012 house, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms is ready for your family. Shed storage and deck. Lot rent $950 included sanitation and water. Close to Highway-65 parks, school, and more.

Key facts

• Close to highway-65
• School
• Shed storage

Tags

• SHED STORAGE
• DECK
• CLOSE TO HIGHWAY-65
• PARKS
• SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.2% in Fridley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#185 in MN, #3,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Spring Lake Park Public Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #162 of 301 in MN (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.05%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $37,652
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $113,167
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55432

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $759	+0% $735	+5% $711	+10% $687
Rent	-10% $609	-5% $672	+0% $735	+5% $798	+10% $860
Rate	-1.0pp $778	-0.5pp $756	base $735	+0.5pp $713	+1.0pp $690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
650 Osborne Rd NE Fridley, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	824	$1,425	$1.73	0d	3	0.35mi
1121 79th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,425	$1.36	12d	6	0.58mi
1129 79th Ave NE Unit 1129-06 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,455	$1.39	11d	1	0.59mi
1129 79th Ave NE Unit 1129-03 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,375	$1.31	0d	1	0.59mi
1129 79th Ave NE Unit 1129-05 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,399	$1.33	23d	1	0.59mi
1412 Osborne Rd NE Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,150	$1.54	45d	1	0.62mi
8070 Central Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$1,385	$1.88	11d	1	0.78mi
8030 Central Ave NE Spring Lake Park, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$1,385	$1.88	0d	7	0.80mi
1200 81st Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$1,385	$1.88	0d	1	0.83mi
1619 73rd Ave NE Unit 206 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1030	$1,295	$1.26	0d	1	0.87mi
1652 69th Ave NE Fridley, MN	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,880	$1.57	0d	8	1.09mi
2901 Mounds View Blvd Saint Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	982	$1,653	$1.68	13d	1	1.37mi
8310 University Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,939	$2.04	12d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2025-12-01
   listed $85,000 Active 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   This 2012 house, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms is ready for your family. Shed storage and deck. Lot rent $950 included sanitation and water. Close to Highway-65 parks, school, and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,887
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,893
• After-tax cash flow: $6,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This mobile home requires extensive repairs and maintenance to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant work is needed to repair the siding, roof, flooring, interior walls, and systems.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — No visible damage, but siding condition suggests underlying issues
• Major flooring — Debris suggests potential issues
• Major interior walls/paint — Debris suggests potential issues
• Major systems — Debris suggests potential issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace siding — Improves both appearance and structural integrity
• Both repair and replace roof — Improves both appearance and structural integrity
• Both repair and replace flooring — Improves both appearance and structural integrity
• Both repair and paint interior walls — Improves both appearance and structural integrity
• Both repair and replace systems — Improves both appearance and structural integrity

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but siding condition suggests underlying issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Debris suggests potential issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Debris suggests potential issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · Debris suggests potential issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace siding — Improves both appearance and structural integrity ↑
• Both repair and replace roof — Improves both appearance and structural integrity ↑
• Both repair and replace flooring — Improves both appearance and structural integrity ↑
• Both repair and paint interior walls — Improves both appearance and structural integrity ↑
• Both repair and replace systems — Improves both appearance and structural integrity ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Lake Park Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2733330
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,602
• Composite: 40.11/100
• National rank: #3802
• State rank: #162 of 301 in MN

Livability — Fridley

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #3977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fridley, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 33,672
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 33,672
• Household income: $79,520
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.23%
• Current HPI: 257.6713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.82%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $492 · +33.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.