3710 Fern View Dr · Houston, TX 77345

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 415 Days on market

Built 1980 8,733 sqft lot $106/sqft · 17% below area Est $300k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours

Key facts

• 8,733 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 415 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($284/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 13075% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $249k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,642
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -16.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3626 Bear Lake Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,052 (-12%)	1mo	$345,000	$168	75
3215 Falling Brook Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,373 (+1%)	0mo	$289,900	$122	75
3618 Riverwood Park Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-15%)	1mo	$269,990	$135	67
3102 Greenwood Glen Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,286 (-2%)	2mo	$369,900	$162	64
3115 Knoll Manor Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,485 (+6%)	0mo	$329,900	$133	63
3211 Park Garden Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,233 (-5%)	1mo	$289,999	$130	61
3902 Haven Pines Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,639 (+13%)	1mo	$399,000	$151	60
3311 Knoll Manor Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,058 (-12%)	2mo	$310,000	$151	59
3111 Falling Brook Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,624 (+12%)	2mo	$329,000	$125	51
3007 Falling Brook Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,593 (+11%)	1mo	$435,000	$168	48
3907 Holly Green Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-13%)	0mo	$269,786	$133	45
3126 Holly Green Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-15%)	2mo	$260,000	$130	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-273
• Equity at exit: $77,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $41,184
• Equity at exit: $98,407

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77345

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$515 /mo · $6,185/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3619 Maple Glen Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$2,149	$0.92	16d	1	0.24mi
4535 Echo Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2184	$2,145	$0.98	1d	1	0.47mi
3334 Birch Creek Dr Kingwood, TX	5.0	3.5	2950	$2,695	$0.91	43d	1	0.61mi
3102 Hickory Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	3336	$2,485	$0.74	2d	1	0.67mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,683	$1.04	22d	1	0.74mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,575	$0.97	18d	1	0.74mi
3303 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2010	$2,006	$1.00	5d	1	0.78mi
3007 Birch Creek Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	0.81mi
3514 Creek Manor Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2274	$1,995	$0.88	43d	1	1.16mi
9323 Darby Knoll Way Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,595	$1.19	43d	1	1.16mi
3918 Forest Village Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2354	$2,350	$1.00	24d	1	1.22mi
2934 Apple Forest Ct Kingwood, TX	4.0	3.0	3224	$2,991	$0.93	43d	1	1.22mi
3311 Pleasant Hollow Ln Porter, TX	5.0	3.5	3196	$3,320	$1.04	16d	1	1.27mi
3806 Village Oaks Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2465	$2,300	$0.93	22d	1	1.27mi
5706 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2346	$2,095	$0.89	15d	1	1.38mi
5714 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,830	$1.02	19d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 415 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 414 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 413 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 412 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 410 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 409 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 406 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 405 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 404 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 401 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 400 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 399 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 398 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 397 DOM
15. 2025-08-13
    price $249,000 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours

16. 2025-08-09
    historical $1,890
17. 2025-08-09
    listed $1,890
18. 2025-08-05
    historical $1,890
19. 2025-07-19
    price $259,000 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours

20. 2025-07-11
    listed $1,890
21. 2025-04-29
    listed $295,000 Active 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours

22. 2024-12-19
    historical
23. 2024-10-09
    historical $1,990
24. 2024-07-31
    listed $249,990 Active
25. 2024-06-20
    listed $1,990
26. 2024-05-02
    historical $1,799
27. 2024-05-01
    historical
28. 2024-03-22
    price $1,799
29. 2024-03-21
    price $249,999
30. 2024-02-06
    price $1,999
31. 2024-02-05
    listed $269,999 Active
32. 2024-02-05
    historical
33. 2023-12-28
    price $274,999
34. 2023-12-08
    status Active
35. 2023-12-07
    status Pending
36. 2023-11-29
    status Option Pending
37. 2023-11-03
    listed $2,200
38. 2023-11-02
    listed $286,000 Active
39. 2023-05-22
    historical
40. 2023-01-31
    listed $290,000 Active
41. 2021-06-18
    soldstatus $76,000
42. 1993-01-06
    soldstatus
43. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus $87,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,185 · $515/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,185 · $515/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$6,185
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$902
• After-tax cash flow: $1,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,917
• Household income: $150,742
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 210.6244
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+183.3% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Rental Removed $1,890 HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Listed for Rent $1,890 HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Rental Removed $1,890 HARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed for Rent $1,890 HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Rental Removed $1,990 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listed for Rent $1,990 HARMLS
• 2024-05-02 Rental Removed $1,799 HARMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $1,799 HARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $1,999 HARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Listed $269,999 HARMLS
• 2023-12-28 Price Changed $274,999 HARMLS
• 2023-12-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-12-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-11-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-11-02 Listed $286,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-31 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1993-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $87,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,185 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.