443 Craigtown Rd · Shipman, VA 22971

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1996 1.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a huge 2 car garage! Offering modern updates throughout all on one level this home is truly move-in ready. Step inside to discover a brand-new kitchen, stunning new LVP flooring, fresh paint, and fully renovated bathrooms that blend style and function, giving you the feel of new construction without the wait. The thoughtful upgrades make this home as practical as it is beautiful. Enjoy the ease of single-level living with off-street parking and a reliable heat pump. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking to downsize in style, this gem is calling! Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Renovated kitchen
• New lvp flooring
• Single-level living

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• RELIABLE HEAT PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.28 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Built with shingle roof
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Garden
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#550 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tye River Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 355 students, 79% FRL); Nelson Middle (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 78% FRL); Nelson County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 517 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,055 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $21,311
• Equity at exit: $89,757

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $83,272
• Equity at exit: $128,548

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22971

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $888/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $167	+0% $102	+5% $37	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $28	+0% $102	+5% $176	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $161	base $102	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,885 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$997/yr (+$83/mo · 112.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$888
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$2,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$660
• After-tax cash flow: $1,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nelson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102580
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 44.37/100
• National rank: #2818
• State rank: #92 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shipman

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #25472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shipman, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,349

Population outlook (Nelson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,115 people
• By 2030: 13,563 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 12,384 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 11,481 · -18.7%
• By 2075: 10,103 · -28.4%
• By 2100: 8,788 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 5% Serbian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Nelson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.8% · R 53.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+5.2 2016: R+5.7 2012: D+2.8 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Current HPI: 330.5576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $229,900 LMLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2019): $888 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.