15165 W Phillips Dr · Park Hill, OK 74451

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Other · 6 Days on market

Built 2021 9,583 sqft lot $17/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake life is calling! This 2021 Clayton Anniversary Series 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home is move-in ready and perfectly positioned on TWO lots just 3 minutes from Lake Tenkiller access at Tenkiller Harbor “D”! Enjoy easy days on the water with a convenient boat ramp ideal for fishing, swimming, and boating adventures. Step inside to find fresh updates including new interior flooring, paint, and appliances—giving this home a clean, modern feel without the wait or hassle. Outside, you’ll love the low-maintenance yard and cozy firepit, perfect for relaxing evenings under the stars after a day at the lake. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, full-time res

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Two lots
• Cozy firepit

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• BOAT RAMP
• NEW INTERIOR FLOORING
• COZY FIREPIT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($159/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#285 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tahlequah (town): math 27% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #109 of 270 in OK (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Cherokee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $125k implies a 431% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,092 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $34,324
• Equity at exit: $75,741

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $101,101
• Equity at exit: $135,017

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74451

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   soldstatus $23,500
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $124,900 Active
4. 2025-08-05
   price $129,000
5. 2025-05-22
   listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$464
• After-tax cash flow: $623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahlequah
• NCES district ID: 4029380
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $32,990
• Composite: 21.28/100
• National rank: #8393
• State rank: #109 of 270 in OK

Livability — Park Hill

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #17549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,816

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,747 people
• By 2030: 53,481 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 56,503 · +9.2%
• By 2050: 59,370 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 67,178 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 70,900 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Native American 27% Two or more races 20% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.6) · D 32.7% · R 65.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -32.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.6 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 256.0707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-82.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records
• 2026-04-16 Listed $124,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $129,000 WRVBOR
• 2025-05-22 Listed $135,000 WRVBOR

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $15 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.