35069 Painted Rock · French Valley, CA 92596

$729,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2015 9,148 sqft lot $243/sqft · at area comps Est $752k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A grand entrance starts with the covered porch and formal entry. A large Great Room serves as the central gathering space and easily connects to the nook and kitchen. The kitchen features a stainless steel appliance package, culinary island, granite countertops, pantry and abundant cabinetry. The dedicated office off the entry may serve as a study space, music room or home office. The generous master suite showcases dual walk-in closets plus private bath with separate tub and shower. Plentiful storage is located in the laundry room. The loft provides flexible entertainment, playroom or homework space. Downstairs bedroom perfect for guests.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Has special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Morning Star Ranch association; Association fee $50 monthly; Association maintains grounds; Community features include gutters, curbs, biking paths, street lighting, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Oversized garage; Tandem garage; Direct garage access; Front-entry garage; Garage door opener; Concrete driveway; Driveway parking; Total 5 parking spaces (3 garage spaces, 2 uncovered)
• Security: Security system; Security lights; Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: House; Two stories; Entry at living room; Turnkey condition; Has view; No ADU
• Construction: Stucco construction; Concrete slab foundation; Concrete and tile roof; Built (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Concrete patio (open); Patio; Outdoor lighting; Sprinkler system; Landscaped yard; Front yard; Back yard; Lawn; Yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen open to family room; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Walk-in pantry; Breakfast counter / bar; Breakfast nook; Formal dining room; In-kitchen dining
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom; Primary suite; Retreat; Bonus room; Dressing area; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Double sinks in master bath; Double sinks in bath(s); Separate tub and shower; Soaking tub; Walk-in shower; Shower; Bathtub; Vanity area; Closet in bathroom; Privacy toilet door; Exhaust fan(s); Main floor full bath; Upgraded bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air / central furnace heating; Fireplace; Central cooling
• Interior features: Built-ins; High ceilings (9 feet+); Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Storage space; Granite counters; Sliding glass door(s); Panel doors; Double pane windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Dedicated laundry room; Laundry on upper level; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $730k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $544k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $481k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $481k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in French Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $78k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $73k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$125k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($708k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $406k; list at $730k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $481,099 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.19%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $751,808
• List price: $729,900
• Delta: -2.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32507 Shadyview St	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,073 (+2%)	2mo	$924,900	$301	79
32526 Presidio Hls	0.17mi	5/3.0	3,213 (+7%)	2mo	$785,000	$244	79
32144 Old Country Ct	0.29mi	5/4.5	3,108 (+4%)	0mo	$780,000	$251	74
32585 Presidio Hls	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,213 (+7%)	3mo	$800,000	$249	70
34581 Spindle Tree	0.48mi	5/3.0	3,188 (+6%)	0mo	$720,000	$226	67
32684 Salvia Cir	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,157 (+5%)	0mo	$750,000	$238	67
32224 Geranium St	0.29mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,596 (-13%)	0mo	$700,000	$270	57
35056 Knollview	0.28mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,369 (+12%)	3mo	$790,000	$234	56
32743 Cherokee Rose	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,909 (-3%)	0mo	$910,000	$313	54
32101 Daisy Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,740 (-9%)	1mo	$715,000	$261	50
32143 Daisy Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,740 (-9%)	2mo	$825,000	$301	48
32768 Westport Way	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,647 (-12%)	2mo	$710,000	$268	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $316,212
• Equity at exit: $657,552

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $958,681
• Equity at exit: $1,418,035

Cash invested: $204,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,828
• Tax from tax record: −$673 /mo · $8,082/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,010
• Net cashflow: $-1,055

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,146

Max offer price $543,600

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-641	-5% $-848	+0% $-1,055	+5% $-1,261	+10% $-1,468
Rent	-10% $-1,435	-5% $-1,245	+0% $-1,055	+5% $-865	+10% $-675
Rate	-1.0pp $-687	-0.5pp $-869	base $-1,055	+0.5pp $-1,244	+1.0pp $-1,436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,475
• Closing costs: $21,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34580 Sourwood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	45d	1	0.25mi
34629 Foxberry Rd Winchester, CA	5.0	5.5	3887	$4,179	$1.08	4d	1	0.30mi
32689 Cottonwood Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	3157	$4,100	$1.30	45d	1	0.34mi
32640 Cougar Pass Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	3800	$8,600	$2.26	45d	1	0.52mi
32907 Cambury Pl Winchester, CA	5.0	4.0	2641	$3,795	$1.44	0d	1	0.91mi
36173 Saint Claire Ct Winchester, CA	6.0	3.5	2905	$6,000	$2.07	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $729,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $729,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $729,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $729,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $729,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $729,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $729,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $729,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $729,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $729,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $729,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $729,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $729,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $729,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    status Active 2011-char remark
16. 2026-05-08
    status Pending Sale 2011-char remark
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $729,900 Active 2011-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    historical
19. 2026-04-27
    price $729,900
20. 2026-03-18
    listed $749,900 Active
21. 2016-03-28
    soldstatus $405,615 Closed Sale

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    A grand entrance starts with the covered porch and formal entry. A large Great Room serves as the central gathering space and easily connects to the nook and kitchen. The kitchen features a stainless steel appliance package, culinary island, granite countertops, pantry and abundant cabinetry. The dedicated office off the entry may serve as a study space, music room or home office. The generous master suite showcases dual walk-in closets plus private bath with separate tub and shower. Plentiful storage is located in the laundry room. The loft provides flexible entertainment, playroom or homework space. Downstairs bedroom perfect for guests.

22. 2016-01-29
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    A grand entrance starts with the covered porch and formal entry. A large Great Room serves as the central gathering space and easily connects to the nook and kitchen. The kitchen features a stainless steel appliance package, culinary island, granite countertops, pantry and abundant cabinetry. The dedicated office off the entry may serve as a study space, music room or home office. The generous master suite showcases dual walk-in closets plus private bath with separate tub and shower. Plentiful storage is located in the laundry room. The loft provides flexible entertainment, playroom or homework space. Downstairs bedroom perfect for guests.

23. 2016-01-11
    historical Hold Do Not Show

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    A grand entrance starts with the covered porch and formal entry. A large Great Room serves as the central gathering space and easily connects to the nook and kitchen. The kitchen features a stainless steel appliance package, culinary island, granite countertops, pantry and abundant cabinetry. The dedicated office off the entry may serve as a study space, music room or home office. The generous master suite showcases dual walk-in closets plus private bath with separate tub and shower. Plentiful storage is located in the laundry room. The loft provides flexible entertainment, playroom or homework space. Downstairs bedroom perfect for guests.

24. 2016-01-04
    price $407,115

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    A grand entrance starts with the covered porch and formal entry. A large Great Room serves as the central gathering space and easily connects to the nook and kitchen. The kitchen features a stainless steel appliance package, culinary island, granite countertops, pantry and abundant cabinetry. The dedicated office off the entry may serve as a study space, music room or home office. The generous master suite showcases dual walk-in closets plus private bath with separate tub and shower. Plentiful storage is located in the laundry room. The loft provides flexible entertainment, playroom or homework space. Downstairs bedroom perfect for guests.

25. 2015-11-23
    price $406,115

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    A grand entrance starts with the covered porch and formal entry. A large Great Room serves as the central gathering space and easily connects to the nook and kitchen. The kitchen features a stainless steel appliance package, culinary island, granite countertops, pantry and abundant cabinetry. The dedicated office off the entry may serve as a study space, music room or home office. The generous master suite showcases dual walk-in closets plus private bath with separate tub and shower. Plentiful storage is located in the laundry room. The loft provides flexible entertainment, playroom or homework space. Downstairs bedroom perfect for guests.

26. 2015-10-20
    listed $405,490 Active

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    A grand entrance starts with the covered porch and formal entry. A large Great Room serves as the central gathering space and easily connects to the nook and kitchen. The kitchen features a stainless steel appliance package, culinary island, granite countertops, pantry and abundant cabinetry. The dedicated office off the entry may serve as a study space, music room or home office. The generous master suite showcases dual walk-in closets plus private bath with separate tub and shower. Plentiful storage is located in the laundry room. The loft provides flexible entertainment, playroom or homework space. Downstairs bedroom perfect for guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,082 · $673/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,082 · $673/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,886
• − Property taxes: −$8,082
• − Insurance: −$3,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,619
• − Management: −$4,619
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$21,233
• Taxable loss: −$25,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,229
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+80.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $729,900 CRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $729,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $749,900 CRMLS
• 2016-03-28 Sold (MLS) $405,615 CRMLS
• 2016-01-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2016-01-11 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2016-01-04 Price Changed $407,115 CRMLS
• 2015-11-23 Price Changed $406,115 CRMLS
• 2015-10-20 Listed $405,490 CRMLS

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,082 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.