3818 N Hammell Beach Rd · Au Gres, MI 48703

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1930 3.00 ac lot Est $88k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A three bedroom, one bath farmhouse that needs some TLC to be restored to it's former glory. This home offers a welcoming covered front porch w/ composite decking that sits on three open acres in a secluded countryside setting, but yet not far from the conveniences of Au Gres and the Tawases. On the main level is a large mudroom/laundry area w/ washer and dryer hookup and tile floor, kitchen/dining combo w/ tile floor, living room, and bathroom w/ a separate tub and shower and tile floors. The upstairs offers the three bedrooms that all feature wood floors that could be refinished to give off a new shine. The grounds feature plenty of greenspace for recreating, tree planting, a future outbuilding, etc! Freshen this farmhouse up the way it deserves to be!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tile floor
• Large mudroom

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COMPOSITE DECKING
• SECLUDED COUNTRYSIDE SETTING
• LARGE MUDROOM
• TILE FLOOR
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 1.9% in Au Gres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#422 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Au Gres-Sims School District (rural): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #376 of 760 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.32%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,064
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3818 N Hammell Beach Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	1mo	$95,000	$86	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,238
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $14,973
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48703

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $992/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $234	+0% $207	+5% $180	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $165	+0% $207	+5% $248	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $231	base $207	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   A three bedroom, one bath farmhouse that needs some TLC to be restored to it's former glory. This home offers a welcoming covered front porch w/ composite decking that sits on three open acres in a secluded countryside setting, but yet not far from the conveniences of Au Gres and the Tawases. On the main level is a large mudroom/laundry area w/ washer and dryer hookup and tile floor, kitchen/dining combo w/ tile floor, living room, and bathroom w/ a separate tub and shower and tile floors. The upstairs offers the three bedrooms that all feature wood floors that could be refinished to give off a new shine. The grounds feature plenty of greenspace for recreating, tree planting, a future outbuilding, etc! Freshen this farmhouse up the way it deserves to be!

2. 2026-03-15
   status Pending 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   A three bedroom, one bath farmhouse that needs some TLC to be restored to it's former glory. This home offers a welcoming covered front porch w/ composite decking that sits on three open acres in a secluded countryside setting, but yet not far from the conveniences of Au Gres and the Tawases. On the main level is a large mudroom/laundry area w/ washer and dryer hookup and tile floor, kitchen/dining combo w/ tile floor, living room, and bathroom w/ a separate tub and shower and tile floors. The upstairs offers the three bedrooms that all feature wood floors that could be refinished to give off a new shine. The grounds feature plenty of greenspace for recreating, tree planting, a future outbuilding, etc! Freshen this farmhouse up the way it deserves to be!

3. 2026-03-04
   listed $95,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   A three bedroom, one bath farmhouse that needs some TLC to be restored to it's former glory. This home offers a welcoming covered front porch w/ composite decking that sits on three open acres in a secluded countryside setting, but yet not far from the conveniences of Au Gres and the Tawases. On the main level is a large mudroom/laundry area w/ washer and dryer hookup and tile floor, kitchen/dining combo w/ tile floor, living room, and bathroom w/ a separate tub and shower and tile floors. The upstairs offers the three bedrooms that all feature wood floors that could be refinished to give off a new shine. The grounds feature plenty of greenspace for recreating, tree planting, a future outbuilding, etc! Freshen this farmhouse up the way it deserves to be!

4. 2026-03-04
   listed $95,000 Active 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   A three bedroom, one bath farmhouse that needs some TLC to be restored to it's former glory. This home offers a welcoming covered front porch w/ composite decking that sits on three open acres in a secluded countryside setting, but yet not far from the conveniences of Au Gres and the Tawases. On the main level is a large mudroom/laundry area w/ washer and dryer hookup and tile floor, kitchen/dining combo w/ tile floor, living room, and bathroom w/ a separate tub and shower and tile floors. The upstairs offers the three bedrooms that all feature wood floors that could be refinished to give off a new shine. The grounds feature plenty of greenspace for recreating, tree planting, a future outbuilding, etc! Freshen this farmhouse up the way it deserves to be!

5. 2020-09-01
   soldstatus $80,000 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This adorable Country farm home has been updated with a combination of old style charm and modern living amenities. Updates to every nook and cranny, including, plumbing, electrical, heat, windows, roof, on and on. Plenty of room to play, great garden space, add some fruit trees or outdoor activities. Perfect for a hobby farm. Area has lots of wildlife in that surround it. Don't wait to come view our new home.

6. 2020-09-01
   soldstatus $80,000

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This adorable Country farm home has been updated with a combination of old style charm and modern living amenities. Updates to every nook and cranny, including, plumbing, electrical, heat, windows, roof, on and on. Plenty of room to play, great garden space, add some fruit trees or outdoor activities. Perfect for a hobby farm. Area has lots of wildlife in that surround it. Don't wait to come view our new home.

7. 2020-09-01
   soldstatus $80,000

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This adorable Country farm home has been updated with a combination of old style charm and modern living amenities. Updates to every nook and cranny, including, plumbing, electrical, heat, windows, roof, on and on. Plenty of room to play, great garden space, add some fruit trees or outdoor activities. Perfect for a hobby farm. Area has lots of wildlife in that surround it. Don't wait to come view our new home.

8. 2020-06-30
   listed $84,900 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This adorable Country farm home has been updated with a combination of old style charm and modern living amenities. Updates to every nook and cranny, including, plumbing, electrical, heat, windows, roof, on and on. Plenty of room to play, great garden space, add some fruit trees or outdoor activities. Perfect for a hobby farm. Area has lots of wildlife in that surround it. Don't wait to come view our new home.

9. 2020-06-30
   listed $84,900

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   This adorable Country farm home has been updated with a combination of old style charm and modern living amenities. Updates to every nook and cranny, including, plumbing, electrical, heat, windows, roof, on and on. Plenty of room to play, great garden space, add some fruit trees or outdoor activities. Perfect for a hobby farm. Area has lots of wildlife in that surround it. Don't wait to come view our new home.

10. 2016-01-11
    historical
11. 2015-06-18
    historical
12. 2015-06-18
    historical
13. 2015-06-10
    listed $76,000
14. 2015-06-10
    listed $76,000
15. 2015-06-10
    listed $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$235/yr (+$20/mo · 23.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$992
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,001
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$240
• After-tax cash flow: $2,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Au Gres-Sims School District
• NCES district ID: 2603600
• Math proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $37,262
• Composite: 36.05/100
• National rank: #9513
• State rank: #376 of 760 in MI

Livability — Au Gres

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #11538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,940

Population outlook (Arenac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,036 people
• By 2030: 13,189 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 11,309 · -19.4%
• By 2050: 9,616 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 6,776 · -51.7%
• By 2100: 4,997 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Arenac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.91%
• Current HPI: 157.0897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-01 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-09-01 Sold (MLS) $80,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-06-30 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-06-30 Listed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-01-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-06-10 Listed $76,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-10 Listed $76,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-06-10 Listed $76,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $992 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.