410 N 15th St · Arkadelphia, AR 71923

$154,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1963 10,018 sqft lot $79/sqft · at area comps Est $160k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice brick home in the heart of Arkadelphia within walking distance to HSU campus. New HVAC, water heater, exterior paint, kitchen and bath flooring. Call today!

Key facts

• New hvac
• New exterior paint
• New water heater

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• WALKING DISTANCE TO HSU CAMPUS
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW KITCHEN FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($248/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Arkadelphia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#32 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities D, commute F.
• Arkadelphia School District (town): math 28% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #167 of 238 in AR (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $154k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,667 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,114
• List price: $154,500
• Delta: -3.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1533 Phillips St	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,102 (+8%)	8mo	$100,000	$48	71
9 Lexington Cir	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,930 (-1%)	2mo	$222,500	$115	64
605 N 13th St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-9%)	13mo	$150,000	$84	64
1347 Lee St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-11%)	3mo	$235,000	$135	60
1325 Hunter St	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+7%)	18mo	$70,000	$33	58
119 N 20th St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (-6%)	2mo	$107,100	$58	54
728 N 15th St	0.22mi	3/1.5	2,206 (+13%)	20mo	$210,000	$95	52
1535 Pine Manor Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,866 (-5%)	14mo	$175,000	$94	51
1 Westmont Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,766 (-10%)	9mo	$205,000	$116	49
1514 Millcreek Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+7%)	12mo	$275,000	$131	46
1565 Pine Manor Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,786 (-9%)	11mo	$145,000	$81	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-23,761
• Equity at exit: $23,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,160
• Equity at exit: $13,358

Cash invested: $43,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71923

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,171/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $154,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $64	+0% $21	+5% $-23	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-29	+0% $21	+5% $70	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $60	base $21	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,625
• Closing costs: $4,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,500 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,500 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,500 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,500 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,500 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,500 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,500 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,500 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,500 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,500 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,500 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,500 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,500 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,500 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,500 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,500 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,500 Active 110 DOM
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $159,500 Active 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Nice brick home in the heart of Arkadelphia within walking distance to HSU campus. New HVAC, water heater, exterior paint, kitchen and bath flooring. Call today!

19. 2026-04-03
    price $159,500 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Nice brick home in the heart of Arkadelphia within walking distance to HSU campus. New HVAC, water heater, exterior paint, kitchen and bath flooring.

20. 2026-02-09
    listed $164,500 New Listing 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Nice brick home in the heart of Arkadelphia within walking distance to HSU campus. New HVAC, water heater, exterior paint, kitchen and bath flooring.

21. 2005-05-03
    soldstatus $73,000
22. 2001-08-30
    soldstatus $126,000
23. 2000-07-03
    soldstatus $117,000
24. 1992-10-01
    soldstatus $82,000
25. 1990-11-01
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,654
• − Property taxes: −$1,171
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,206
• − Management: −$1,206
• − Depreciation: −$4,495
• Taxable loss: −$2,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$582
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arkadelphia School District
• NCES district ID: 0502430
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,116
• Composite: 23.13/100
• National rank: #7954
• State rank: #167 of 238 in AR

Livability — Arkadelphia

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #6224

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arkadelphia, AR
• City population: 1,292
• Population (ZIP): 14,374

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,335 people
• By 2030: 22,306 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 21,839 · -2.2%
• By 2050: 21,961 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 24,186 · +8.3%
• By 2100: 25,897 · +15.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.5) · D 38.6% · R 59.1% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.8pp · 2024: -20.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.5 2020: R+14.0 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+6.4 2008: R+3.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.38%
• Current HPI: 209.8396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+127.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $159,500 HSBOR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $159,500 CARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $164,500 CARMLS
• 2005-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 1992-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1990-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,171 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.