15229 Wildflower Cir · Naples, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- AH
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,142 – $2,507
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 30 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Schools +7.0/10.0
- Cash flow +5.7/30.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +1.9/5.0
- 1% rule +1.3/10.0
- DSCR +0.1/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$385,000
15229 Wildflower Cir · Naples, FL 34119
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 637 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 96 Days on market
Built 2021
1-car garage
$604/sqft
· 69% above area
Est $552k · 30% under
$200/mo HOA · 8% of rent
↓ 8% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Do not miss out on this brand new 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom townhome in north Naples! This lovely residence has been barely lived in, built in 2021, is located in a A+ school district, and is as fresh and clean as new construction! Meadowood sold out in record time! This home also borders a preserve for ultimate privacy and has an oversized one car attached garage! Meadowood is a gated community with a community pool, gym, billiard room, children's playground and basketball court. Meadowood also has some of the lowest HOA dues in the area, only $160 a month!
Key facts
- Large pool
- Screened lanai
- Community gym
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $385k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-931 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (42.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (37.1% below list).
- Recommended offer: $221k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.4% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
- Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Laurel Oak Elementary School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 1,203 students, 20% FRL); Oakridge Middle School (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,183 students, 26% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$220,580
(42.7% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.63% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.87%
- Cash-on-cash
- -8.67%
- DSCR
- 0.61
- GRM
- 13.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $551,571
- List price
- $385,000
- Delta
- -30.20%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14890 Pleasant Bay Ln #3202 | 0.37mi | 1/1.0 (-2) | 800 (+26%) | 3mo | $215,000 | $269 | 39 |
| 14890 Pleasant Bay Ln #3108 | 0.37mi | 1/1.0 (-2) | 723 (+14%) | 40mo | $220,000 | $304 | 24 |
| 14890 Pleasant Bay Ln #3208 | 0.37mi | 1/1.0 (-2) | 800 (+26%) | 59mo | $156,000 | $195 | 22 |
| 14880 Pleasant Bay Ln #2202 | 0.41mi | 1/1.0 (-2) | 800 (+26%) | 27mo | $205,000 | $256 | 20 |
| 4044 Crystal Lake Dr | 0.71mi | 2/1.5 (-1) | 468 (-26%) | 25mo | $225,000 | $481 | 13 |
| 310 Rose Blvd | 0.97mi | 1/1.0 (-2) | 800 (+26%) | 20mo | $349,000 | $436 | 7 |
| 4105 Crystal Lake Dr | 1.17mi | 1/1.0 (-2) | 518 (-19%) | 24mo | $200,000 | $386 | 4 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -38.6%
- Equity multiple
- -0.19×
- Total profit
- $-128,610
- Equity at exit
- $57,405
10-year hold
- IRR
- -83.5%
- Equity multiple
- -1.00×
- Total profit
- $-215,130
- Equity at exit
- $33,288
Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
ZIP-level market 34119
- Rents YoY
- -2.5%
- Active inventory
- 631
- Price-to-rent
- 13.3×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,420 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,019
- Tax from tax record
- −$311 /mo · $3,734/yr
- Insurance
- −$160
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
- HOA
- −$200
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$508
- Net cashflow
- $-931
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$3,598
Max offer price
$220,580
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-713 | -5% $-822 | +0% $-931 | +5% $-1,040 | +10% $-1,149 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-1,122 | -5% $-1,026 | +0% $-931 | +5% $-835 | +10% $-740 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-737 | -0.5pp $-833 | base $-931 | +0.5pp $-1,031 | +1.0pp $-1,132 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $96,250
- Closing costs
- $11,550
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Part of the Meadowood development
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOAQuarterly master HOA fee of $600 (total annual recurring fees $2,400)Professional managementHOA maintenance covers lawn/land maintenance, street maintenance, street lights, legal/accounting, and managerCommunity amenities include basketball, community pool, community room, and exercise room
Exterior
- Parking
- Paved drivewayGuest parking availableDetached 2-space carportAttached 1-car garage
- Security
- Gated community
- Utilities
- Central waterCentral sewerCable available
- Home design
- Single family residenceTwo-story designRear exposure faces westZero lot line
- Construction
- Concrete block constructionShingle roofBuilt in 2021
- Exterior features
- PatioStucco exteriorShutters (manual)Single hung windowsPreserve viewCentral irrigation
Interior
- Kitchen
- IslandPantry and walk-in pantryBreakfast bar / eat-in kitchenDishwasherRangeRefrigeratorDisposal
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedroomsMaster bedroom located upstairs
- Flooring
- CarpetTile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomMaster bath with combo tub and shower
- Heating & cooling
- Central electric heatCentral electric cooling
- Interior features
- Built-in cabinetsSmoke detectorsWalk-in closetOpen porch/lanai
- Laundry & utility
- Washer included
HOA detail $200/mo · $2,400/yr
- Likely covers
- poolgymsecurity
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $385,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $385,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $385,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $385,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $385,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $385,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $385,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $385,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $385,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $385,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $385,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $385,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $385,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $385,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $385,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $385,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $385,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $385,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $385,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $385,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $385,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $385,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $385,000 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $385,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-07-08days on market $385,000 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $385,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $385,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $385,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-04days on market $385,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $385,000 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $385,000 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $385,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $385,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $385,000 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $385,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $385,000 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $385,000 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $385,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $385,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $385,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $385,000 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $385,000 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $385,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $385,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $385,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $385,000 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $385,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $385,000 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $385,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $385,000 Active 30 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $3,734 · $311/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,734 · $311/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $29,041
- − Mortgage interest
- −$21,566
- − Property taxes
- −$3,734
- − Insurance
- −$3,750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,323
- − Management
- −$2,323
- − HOA
- −$2,400
- − Depreciation
- −$11,200
- Taxable loss
- −$18,255
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$4,381
- After-tax cash flow
- $-6,788/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $3,185–$9,555 screening
This well-maintained, move-in-ready townhome in Meadowood offers spacious living areas and a private outdoor space, making it an ideal choice for families or investors.
Value-add opportunities
- Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
- Both landscape bushes — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
B
Composite school gradezoned avg 70/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Vineyards Elementary School
A
FL #170/2,144
Nat'l #1,658/41,679
Middle
Oakridge Middle School
A
FL #59/571
Nat'l #766/14,009
High
Gulf Coast High School
B-
FL #93/667
Nat'l #3,176/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Collier
- NCES district ID
- 1200330
- Math proficiency
- 60% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 56% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,275
- Composite
- 50.23/100
- National rank
- #1892
- State rank
- #16 of 73 in FL
A
Composite livability gradescore 80/100
Livability — Naples
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #126
- US rank
- #1903
Category grades
Amenities A+
Commute D+
Cost of living F
Crime A+
Employment A+
Housing C+
Health & safety A+
User ratings C+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Collier County · 420,858 people
- City population
- 344,941
- Metro
- Naples-Marco Island, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 36,807
- Household income
- $113,391
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 29% of renters
Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 420,858 people
- By 2030
- 450,054 · +6.9%
- By 2040
- 502,232 · +19.3%
- By 2050
- 544,932 · +29.5%
- By 2075
- 627,203 · +49.0%
- By 2100
- 659,015 · +56.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (74%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Collier
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -243.12%
- Current HPI
- 269.3208
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -2.51%
- Metro
- Naples-Marco Island, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
-8.1% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-04 Listed $385,000 NAPLESMLS
- 2022-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $455,000 Public Records
- 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) $455,000 NAPLESMLS
- 2022-04-05 Pending — NAPLESMLS
- 2022-03-25 Listed $479,900 NAPLESMLS
- 2021-12-13 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
- 2021-12-11 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
- 2021-12-06 Pending — NAPLESMLS
- 2021-12-03 Listed $419,000 NAPLESMLS
Property tax history
+84.0%/yrLatest (2025): $3,734 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…