25 Woodcliff Ave · Arlington, NY 12603

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,531 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1948 0.26 ac lot Est $372k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Per Tax the subject is a 75 year old, Single Family Residence home with GLA of 1,531 sq. ft., 6 total room count, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, unfinished basement, 1 det garage, on a lot size of 11,326 sq. Ft. located in rural area of Poughkeepsie. *** Seller makes no guarantees about property’s condition, room count or other physical characteristics nor does seller guarantee accuracy whether property is on public sewer or private septic. *** Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

Key facts

• Full rehab
• Functional layout
• Solid footprint

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SOLID FOOTPRINT
• FULL REHAB
• VALUE-ADD IMPROVEMENTS
• HANDYMAN SPECIAL
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#41 in NY, #647 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Overlook Primary School (402 students, 25% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.00%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,033
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Seitz Ter	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-1%)	5mo	$440,000	$291	72
45 Marple Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,470 (-4%)	6mo	$356,900	$243	66
11 Congress Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+7%)	7mo	$385,226	$236	65
34 Mountain View Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,558 (+2%)	2mo	$374,000	$240	62
44 S Grand Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,616 (+6%)	4mo	$240,000	$149	62
5 Wood St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,608 (+5%)	5mo	$385,000	$239	61
19 Lewis Ave	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-12%)	6mo	$330,000	$244	60
13 Parkview Ter	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,374 (-10%)	4mo	$272,500	$198	58
11 Mountain View Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-7%)	6mo	$389,000	$274	55
18 Peckham Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,655 (+8%)	4mo	$424,900	$257	49
65 Worrall Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-12%)	2mo	$379,000	$281	46
63 Manitou Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,704 (+11%)	6mo	$326,000	$191	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,611
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,850
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12603

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$661 /mo · $7,933/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,263

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $196	+0% $139	+5% $83	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $43	+0% $139	+5% $236	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $190	base $139	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
761 Main St Unit 3E Arlington, NY	2.0	1.0	1083	$1,700	$1.57	15d	1	0.28mi
6 Taconic St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1380	$3,300	$2.39	24d	1	0.39mi
15 Hoffman Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	15d	1	0.49mi
18 Innis Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,500	$1.86	24d	1	0.54mi
37 Roosevelt Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	22d	1	0.58mi
50 Crestwood Blvd Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,595	$1.62	15d	1	0.70mi
148 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,900	$1.59	45d	1	0.91mi
197 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,600	$1.93	45d	1	0.94mi
104 Winnikee Ave #3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	45d	1	0.96mi
8 Fox Ter Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	45d	1	0.99mi
94 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	15d	1	0.99mi
9 Bartlett St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,000	$1.85	24d	1	1.16mi
25 Virginia Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	45d	1	1.19mi
236 Mansion St #2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	2076	$2,600	$1.25	45d	1	1.19mi
7 S Clinton St #2 Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1140	$2,045	$1.79	24d	1	1.21mi
3502 Fox Ln Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.5	1124	$2,000	$1.78	45d	1	1.22mi
15 Forbus St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	2140	$2,500	$1.17	24d	1	1.22mi
32 Salt Point Tpke Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1761	$3,000	$1.70	22d	1	1.22mi
2 Park Pl Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1380	$1,900	$1.38	24d	1	1.26mi
2905 Fox Ln Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,600	$2.33	45d	1	1.27mi
1 S Hamilton St Unit 3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	45d	1	1.36mi
131 N Clinton St Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	15d	1	1.38mi
49 S Hamilton St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	45d	1	1.42mi
155 N Clinton St Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	1.0	1960	$2,500	$1.28	45d	1	1.43mi
156 N Clinton St Apt 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.44mi
43 High St Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	24d	1	1.47mi
337 Main St Unit 3F Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	24d	1	1.49mi
337 Main St Unit 2F Poughkeepsie, NY	2.0	2.0	1820	$2,100	$1.15	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2023-08-29
   soldstatus $176,400 Closed 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   Per Tax the subject is a 75 year old, Single Family Residence home with GLA of 1,531 sq. ft., 6 total room count, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, unfinished basement, 1 det garage, on a lot size of 11,326 sq. Ft. located in rural area of Poughkeepsie. *** Seller makes no guarantees about property’s condition, room count or other physical characteristics nor does seller guarantee accuracy whether property is on public sewer or private septic. *** Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

4. 2022-12-27
   status Pending 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   Per Tax the subject is a 75 year old, Single Family Residence home with GLA of 1,531 sq. ft., 6 total room count, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, unfinished basement, 1 det garage, on a lot size of 11,326 sq. Ft. located in rural area of Poughkeepsie. *** Seller makes no guarantees about property’s condition, room count or other physical characteristics nor does seller guarantee accuracy whether property is on public sewer or private septic. *** Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

5. 2022-12-07
   listed $127,200 Active 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   Per Tax the subject is a 75 year old, Single Family Residence home with GLA of 1,531 sq. ft., 6 total room count, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, unfinished basement, 1 det garage, on a lot size of 11,326 sq. Ft. located in rural area of Poughkeepsie. *** Seller makes no guarantees about property’s condition, room count or other physical characteristics nor does seller guarantee accuracy whether property is on public sewer or private septic. *** Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

6. 2001-02-23
   soldstatus $116,000
7. 1995-05-19
   soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,933 · $661/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,933 · $661/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$7,933
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$307
• After-tax cash flow: $1,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #647

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, NY
• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,304
• Household income: $103,538
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.61%
• Current HPI: 252.7003
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+101.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-29 Sold (MLS) $176,400 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-07 Listed $127,200 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,933 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.