1895 Pequash Ave · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$2,800,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2023 0.92 ac lot $824/sqft · 93% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you can't find the home of your dreams here on the North Fork, build it! Here is your opportunity to build the home you desire making it truly your own with your design & style, and your family's functionality in mind. Sandy bay beach at the end of the road with a playground for everyone's enjoyment. Enjoy everything North Fork from this location.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Natural light
• High ceilings

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• POLISHED CONCRETE FLOORS
• EXPANSIVE CHEFS KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BEAUTIFULLY COMPOSED BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private in-ground salt water pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels/stories; Living area based on plans
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Landscaped grounds; Front and rear sprinkler systems; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located on the downstairs/main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and first-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Walk-in closets; Deck and patio
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.42M (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.42M (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $299k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $280k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $784k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$481k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.72M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $390k; list at $2.80M implies a 618% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,418,501 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,449,000
• List price: $2,800,000
• Delta: 93.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4785 Stillwater Ave	0.41mi	4/4.5	3,000 (-12%)	14mo	$1,501,000	$500	50
860 Griffing St	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,326 (-2%)	15mo	$1,335,000	$401	45
1465 Harbor Ln	0.50mi	4/3.5	3,000 (-12%)	12mo	$3,862,000	$1,287	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $1,644,482
• Equity at exit: $2,522,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $4,746,104
• Equity at exit: $5,439,784

Cash invested: $784,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $24,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,684
• Tax from tax record: −$1,364 /mo · $16,373/yr
• Insurance: −$1,167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,079
• Net cashflow: $1,892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,791

Max offer price $2,800,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,477	-5% $2,684	+0% $1,892	+5% $1,099	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $936	+0% $1,892	+5% $2,847	+10% $3,802
Rate	-1.0pp $3,302	-0.5pp $2,604	base $1,892	+0.5pp $1,166	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $700,000
• Closing costs: $84,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Moose Trl Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2600	$20,000	$7.69	46d	1	0.60mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	46d	1	0.99mi
250 Pine Tree Ct Cutchogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2800	$32,500	$11.61	46d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $2,800,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,800,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,800,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,800,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,800,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,800,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,800,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $2,800,000 Active 1584-char remark
18. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus $390,000
19. 2020-09-02
    soldstatus $390,000 Closed 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    If you can't find the home of your dreams here on the North Fork, build it! Here is your opportunity to build the home you desire making it truly your own with your design & style, and your family's functionality in mind. Sandy bay beach at the end of the road with a playground for everyone's enjoyment. Enjoy everything North Fork from this location.

20. 2020-06-14
    price $399,000 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    If you can't find the home of your dreams here on the North Fork, build it! Here is your opportunity to build the home you desire making it truly your own with your design & style, and your family's functionality in mind. Sandy bay beach at the end of the road with a playground for everyone's enjoyment. Enjoy everything North Fork from this location.

21. 2020-06-12
    listed $329,000 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    If you can't find the home of your dreams here on the North Fork, build it! Here is your opportunity to build the home you desire making it truly your own with your design & style, and your family's functionality in mind. Sandy bay beach at the end of the road with a playground for everyone's enjoyment. Enjoy everything North Fork from this location.

22. 2015-12-31
    historical
23. 2012-07-19
    listed $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $16,373 · $1,364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $31,846 · $2,654/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,474/yr (+$1,289/mo · 94.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $290,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$156,844
• − Property taxes: −$16,373
• − Insurance: −$14,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$23,218
• − Management: −$23,218
• − Depreciation: −$81,455
• Taxable loss: −$24,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,973
• After-tax cash flow: $28,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $2,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-02 Sold (MLS) $390,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-14 Price Changed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-12 Listed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-19 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,373 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.