5203 Lochaven Ave · Montrose, VA 23231

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1925 0.28 ac lot $192/sqft · 26% below area Est $223k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OPPORTUNITY IS KNOCKING! 2 Bed 1 Bath Ranch Home. Needs Full Renovation. (priced accordingly) HUGE LOT, POSSIBLE DOUBLE CORNER LOT. Great and Up and Coming Henrico neighborhood. Close to RIC Airport and only minutes to downtown Richmond. Home is valued over $260,000 after renovation (ARV) AND YOU HAVE A LOT WHERE YOU COULD POSSIBLY BUILD ANOTHER HOME. Possibilities are endless. Sold "AS IS". Conduct all inspections prior to making offer. Seller is only accepting non-contingent contracts, $5,000 non-refundable deposit, closing in 21 days. Time is of the essence.

Key facts

• Close to ric airport
• Huge lot
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• POSSIBLE DOUBLE CORNER LOT
• CLOSE TO RIC AIRPORT
• MINUTES TO DOWNTOWN RICHMOND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Montrose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in VA, #4,169 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $165k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,507 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,397
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -26.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5203 Lochaven Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	858 (0%)	1mo	$157,000	$183	94
1906 Brandonview Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+1%)	2mo	$210,000	$243	85
5303 Parker St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (+3%)	3mo	$240,000	$271	71
5116 Montpelier St	0.10mi	3/1.0	980 (+14%)	2mo	$250,000	$255	70
5125 Cavedo Ln	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	895 (+4%)	4mo	$249,800	$279	69
5311 Campbell Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	835 (-3%)	2mo	$237,000	$284	66
5505 Parker St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+1%)	4mo	$223,000	$258	64
2219 Farrand St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	918 (+7%)	2mo	$158,000	$172	63
2507 Carlisle Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	936 (+9%)	2mo	$214,950	$230	56
2309 Farrand St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (+8%)	2mo	$152,500	$164	55
5123 Robin Grey Ln	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-8%)	5mo	$145,000	$183	50
1106 Goddin St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	744 (-13%)	0mo	$240,000	$323	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,454
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,222
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23231

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $286	-5% $239	+0% $192	+5% $146	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $132	+0% $192	+5% $253	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $234	base $192	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1822 Williamsburg Rd Unit 9 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	21d	1	0.12mi
1708 Carlisle Ave Unit 1 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	44d	1	0.32mi
1708 Carlisle Ave Unit 6 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	24d	1	0.32mi
2300 Farrand St Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,600	$1.72	44d	1	0.49mi
2411 Carlisle Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	930	$1,750	$1.88	3d	1	0.51mi
1210 Carlisle Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,695	$1.86	5d	1	0.66mi
1257 Nelson St Unit C Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	15d	1	0.66mi
1247 Nelson St Unit B Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	5d	1	0.68mi
1213 Nelson St Unit C Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	5d	1	0.68mi
1245 Nelson St Unit D Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	24d	1	0.69mi
1217 Nelson St Unit D Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	24d	1	0.70mi
1400 Jennie Scher Rd Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	44d	2	0.74mi
1227 Nelson St Unit A Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	15d	1	0.74mi
1229 Nelson St Unit A Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	5d	1	0.74mi
5205 Scott St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,995	$2.19	3d	1	0.74mi
1013 Garber St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1021	$1,675	$1.64	44d	1	0.79mi
1021 Carlisle Ave Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	789	$2,059	$2.61	22d	1	0.80mi
501 Orleans St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,395	$2.71	2d	9	1.13mi
501 Orleans St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,395	$2.71	45d	15	1.13mi
3516 E Richmond Rd Unit 10 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	44d	1	1.17mi
3528 E Richmond Rd Unit U5 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	692	$1,145	$1.65	24d	1	1.20mi
3528 E Richmond Rd Unit 21 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,195	$1.53	12d	1	1.20mi
3508 E Richmond Rd Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	801	$1,336	$1.67	5d	7	1.22mi
3503 E Marshall St Unit 2 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	12d	1	1.32mi
4603 Chipoax Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	846	$1,784	$2.11	24d	1	1.33mi
4605 Eastover Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	846	$1,695	$2.00	24d	1	1.37mi
6105 Varina Point Ln Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1044	$2,100	$2.01	18d	1	1.40mi
4431 Lakefield Mews Dr Henrico, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	899	$1,664	$1.85	2d	19	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   OPPORTUNITY IS KNOCKING! 2 Bed 1 Bath Ranch Home. Needs Full Renovation. (priced accordingly) HUGE LOT, POSSIBLE DOUBLE CORNER LOT. Great and Up and Coming Henrico neighborhood. Close to RIC Airport and only minutes to downtown Richmond. Home is valued over $260,000 after renovation (ARV) AND YOU HAVE A LOT WHERE YOU COULD POSSIBLY BUILD ANOTHER HOME. Possibilities are endless. Sold "AS IS". Conduct all inspections prior to making offer. Seller is only accepting non-contingent contracts, $5,000 non-refundable deposit, closing in 21 days. Time is of the essence.

2. 2026-04-13
   price $164,900 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   OPPORTUNITY IS KNOCKING! 2 Bed 1 Bath Ranch Home. Needs Full Renovation. (priced accordingly) HUGE LOT, POSSIBLE DOUBLE CORNER LOT. Great and Up and Coming Henrico neighborhood. Close to RIC Airport and only minutes to downtown Richmond. Home is valued over $260,000 after renovation (ARV) AND YOU HAVE A LOT WHERE YOU COULD POSSIBLY BUILD ANOTHER HOME. Possibilities are endless. Sold "AS IS". Conduct all inspections prior to making offer. Seller is only accepting non-contingent contracts, $5,000 non-refundable deposit, closing in 21 days. Time is of the essence.

3. 2026-03-26
   status Active 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   OPPORTUNITY IS KNOCKING! 2 Bed 1 Bath Ranch Home. Needs Full Renovation. (priced accordingly) HUGE LOT, POSSIBLE DOUBLE CORNER LOT. Great and Up and Coming Henrico neighborhood. Close to RIC Airport and only minutes to downtown Richmond. Home is valued over $260,000 after renovation (ARV) AND YOU HAVE A LOT WHERE YOU COULD POSSIBLY BUILD ANOTHER HOME. Possibilities are endless. Sold "AS IS". Conduct all inspections prior to making offer. Seller is only accepting non-contingent contracts, $5,000 non-refundable deposit, closing in 21 days. Time is of the essence.

4. 2026-03-23
   listed $174,900 Active 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   OPPORTUNITY IS KNOCKING! 2 Bed 1 Bath Ranch Home. Needs Full Renovation. (priced accordingly) HUGE LOT, POSSIBLE DOUBLE CORNER LOT. Great and Up and Coming Henrico neighborhood. Close to RIC Airport and only minutes to downtown Richmond. Home is valued over $260,000 after renovation (ARV) AND YOU HAVE A LOT WHERE YOU COULD POSSIBLY BUILD ANOTHER HOME. Possibilities are endless. Sold "AS IS". Conduct all inspections prior to making offer. Seller is only accepting non-contingent contracts, $5,000 non-refundable deposit, closing in 21 days. Time is of the essence.

5. 2016-09-08
   historical
6. 2016-04-22
   listed $66,100 Active
7. 1989-07-01
   soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,352 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$311/yr (+$26/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,474
• − Management: −$1,474
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$102
• After-tax cash flow: $2,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Montrose

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #4169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montrose, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,544
• Household income: $76,505
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1555.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.28%
• Current HPI: 315.8154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+322.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $164,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $174,900 CVRMLS
• 2016-09-08 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2016-04-22 Listed $66,100 CVRMLS
• 1989-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,042 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.