2139 W 22nd St · Erie, PA 16502

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1975 5,401 sqft lot Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Plenty of opportunity in this potential rental or fixer-upper. Conveniently located and priced right. Great fenced rear yard with shed and long paved driveway. Some finished space in the lower level. A bit of work will go a long way on this one.

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($705/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.4% in Erie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Grover Cleveland El Sch (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,211 of 1,518 statewide, top 80%, 554 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,534/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1044% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $160k implies a 338% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $153,401 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2918 Hudson Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,199 (-0%)	2mo	$162,900	$136	73
2109 S Manor Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,222 (+2%)	2mo	$190,000	$155	64
3001 Highland Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-5%)	1mo	$240,000	$211	61
3025 Berkley Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	5mo	$175,000	$145	58
2653 W 25th St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,253 (+4%)	4mo	$170,000	$136	57
2829 Feasler Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+12%)	2mo	$153,000	$114	56
1652 W 23rd St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,171 (-2%)	8mo	$165,000	$141	55
2920 Post Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,370 (+14%)	0mo	$80,000	$58	55
3022 Hudson Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+10%)	6mo	$165,000	$124	44
1630 W 21st St	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,350 (+12%)	4mo	$138,500	$103	36
2818 Evanston Ave	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,361 (+13%)	8mo	$247,000	$181	32
3109 Ellsworth Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+13%)	6mo	$152,000	$112	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-22,161
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,453
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,975/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $104	+0% $59	+5% $14	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $-2	+0% $59	+5% $119	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $99	base $59	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1837 W 9th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	0.99mi
2540 W 8th St Erie, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	550	$1,711	$3.11	45d	1	1.08mi
2857 Willowood Dr Unit 2901 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	45d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-14
   historical
2. 2026-04-11
   listed $159,900
3. 2019-02-20
   soldstatus $36,500 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   Plenty of opportunity in this potential rental or fixer-upper. Conveniently located and priced right. Great fenced rear yard with shed and long paved driveway. Some finished space in the lower level. A bit of work will go a long way on this one.

4. 2018-11-01
   listed $39,000 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   Plenty of opportunity in this potential rental or fixer-upper. Conveniently located and priced right. Great fenced rear yard with shed and long paved driveway. Some finished space in the lower level. A bit of work will go a long way on this one.

5. 1984-05-30
   soldstatus $29,000
6. 1976-10-01
   soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,975 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,975 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,975
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$461
• After-tax cash flow: $1,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+471.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2026-04-11 Listed $159,900 GEBOR
• 2019-02-20 Sold (MLS) $36,500 GEBOR
• 2018-11-01 Listed $39,000 GEBOR
• 1984-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1976-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,975 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.