10035 Meadow Mill Forest Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$218,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2014 4,730 sqft lot $121/sqft · 10% below area Est $241k · 10% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Hidden Meadow. The open-concept layout is perfect for everyday living, featuring beautiful flooring, a bright kitchen with rich mahogany cabinets, and plenty of natural light. Upstairs includes a spacious primary suite and two generously sized bedrooms. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with no rear neighbors for added privacy. Conveniently located near Beltway 8, Hwy 90 & Generation Park.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• No rear neighbors
• Open concept layout

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• RICH MAHOGANY CABINETS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• QUIET STREET
• EASY ACCESS TO BELTWAY 8

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheldon Early Childhood Academy (589 students, 87% FRL); Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL); C E King H S (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,473 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,056 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,268
• List price: $218,000
• Delta: -9.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12819 Blue Timbers Ct	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,801 (+0%)	3mo	$229,900	$128	86
12838 Windy Summer Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,829 (+2%)	11mo	$255,000	$139	76
9734 Vanessa Glen Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,800 (+0%)	1mo	$290,000	$161	71
12422 Garden Gale Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-3%)	5mo	$259,000	$149	68
9742 Raisbeck Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-1%)	6mo	$235,000	$133	65
13111 Italian Cypress Trl	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,788 (-1%)	3mo	$255,000	$143	64
9518 Belleclaire Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,665 (-7%)	1mo	$193,200	$116	61
10307 Leafy Autumn Path	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,595 (-11%)	10mo	$235,000	$147	58
12911 Italian Cypress Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-11%)	9mo	$238,000	$149	53
13230 Montane Manor Ln	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,876 (+4%)	6mo	$234,500	$125	53
10023 Yanet Grove Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,960 (+9%)	2mo	$270,000	$138	45
13015 Italian Cypress Trl	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (-14%)	7mo	$235,000	$152	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-39,006
• Equity at exit: $46,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-54,063
• Equity at exit: $43,891

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,328/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,278

Max offer price $182,056

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-142	+0% $-203	+5% $-265	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-363	-5% $-283	+0% $-203	+5% $-124	+10% $-44
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-148	base $-203	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10007 Copper Hollow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,700	$0.96	46d	1	0.15mi
10410 Solitude Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2174	$2,100	$0.97	4d	1	0.26mi
10306 White Fir Villa Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	45d	1	0.34mi
12319 Garden Gale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,766	$1.03	7d	1	0.35mi
12315 Roy Mix Bohn Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	0.53mi
9418 Belleclaire Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	26d	1	0.55mi
13206 Clifton Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	19d	1	0.60mi
12227 Ghita Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	0.65mi
10103 Dawson Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2021	$2,249	$1.11	24d	1	0.69mi
13030 Sandhill Park Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2402	$2,120	$0.88	3d	1	0.82mi
12703 Enchanted Path Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,701	$1.19	14d	1	0.84mi
13150 Cutler Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2264	$2,195	$0.97	7d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $218,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $218,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $225,000 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Hidden Meadow. The open-concept layout is perfect for everyday living, featuring beautiful flooring, a bright kitchen with rich mahogany cabinets, and plenty of natural light. Upstairs includes a spacious primary suite and two generously sized bedrooms. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with no rear neighbors for added privacy. Conveniently located near Beltway 8, Hwy 90 & Generation Park.

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $240,000 Active 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Hidden Meadow. The open-concept layout is perfect for everyday living, featuring beautiful flooring, a bright kitchen with rich mahogany cabinets, and plenty of natural light. Upstairs includes a spacious primary suite and two generously sized bedrooms. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with no rear neighbors for added privacy. Conveniently located near Beltway 8, Hwy 90 & Generation Park.

17. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus
18. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus Sold 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Make this charming 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home yours today! Conveniently located minutes from Hwy 90, Beltway 8 and newly developed Generation Park, location is key for this property if you are looking for convenience and easy access to major highways! All bedrooms including master are upstairs allowing maximum space and open layout on first floor. Great sized fully fenced backyard with no neighbors directly behind home allows for added privacy. This home will go fast so book your appointment to view soon!

19. 2020-10-27
    status Pending 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Make this charming 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home yours today! Conveniently located minutes from Hwy 90, Beltway 8 and newly developed Generation Park, location is key for this property if you are looking for convenience and easy access to major highways! All bedrooms including master are upstairs allowing maximum space and open layout on first floor. Great sized fully fenced backyard with no neighbors directly behind home allows for added privacy. This home will go fast so book your appointment to view soon!

20. 2020-10-19
    status Option Pending 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Make this charming 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home yours today! Conveniently located minutes from Hwy 90, Beltway 8 and newly developed Generation Park, location is key for this property if you are looking for convenience and easy access to major highways! All bedrooms including master are upstairs allowing maximum space and open layout on first floor. Great sized fully fenced backyard with no neighbors directly behind home allows for added privacy. This home will go fast so book your appointment to view soon!

21. 2020-10-17
    listed $189,900 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Make this charming 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home yours today! Conveniently located minutes from Hwy 90, Beltway 8 and newly developed Generation Park, location is key for this property if you are looking for convenience and easy access to major highways! All bedrooms including master are upstairs allowing maximum space and open layout on first floor. Great sized fully fenced backyard with no neighbors directly behind home allows for added privacy. This home will go fast so book your appointment to view soon!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,328 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,328 · $527/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$6,328
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$6,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,455
• After-tax cash flow: $-986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-10-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-10-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-10-17 Listed $189,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,328 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.