15474 Fm 1414 · Newton, TX 75932

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2005 0.97 ac lot ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Massive Price Reduction!! Recent Independent Appraisal of $140K, INSTANT Equity for you!! New Survey Also! Don't Miss This charming rustic cabin is nestled in the heart of Burkeville on just under 1 acre. It features a metal roof, is open concept, Built with Cypress, white oak, red oak, and sinker wood, this home is full of character. A one bedroom and one bathroom downstairs, Wood-burning Fireplace, central heating and cooling with a large loft upstairs that could be flex space or additional bedrooms easily. Covered front and back porches for relaxing, a concrete slab that is a great start for a garage or barn. A horseshoe drive would add even greater flexibility to this property. Convenie

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Open concept
• Built with cypress

Tags

• RUSTIC CABIN
• METAL ROOF
• OPEN CONCEPT
• BUILT WITH CYPRESS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• CENTRAL HEATING AND COOLING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,545 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $52,421
• Equity at exit: $78,952

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $146,195
• Equity at exit: $160,035

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75932

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $859

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $99,500 Active
4. 2026-01-09
   listed $99,500 Active
5. 2025-06-20
   price $80,000
6. 2025-05-17
   price $120,000
7. 2025-04-12
   price $140,000
8. 2015-02-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 31.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$982
• − Management: −$982
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable loss: −$36
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,753
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #11672
• State rank: #966 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,339

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Hungarian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.49%
• Current HPI: 214.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-11 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-01-09 Listed $99,500 BBOR
• 2026-01-09 Listed $99,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $80,000 BBOR
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $120,000 BBOR
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $140,000 BBOR
• 2015-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,380 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.