Northwood Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$236,999

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,228 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first level of this two-story home features a spacious open floorplan, allowing for effortless flow between the family room, kitchen and dining room. Access to the outdoor space makes it easy to entertain. All three bedrooms are situated on the second level, including the restful owner's suite.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $236,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,439.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-424 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,207 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.57%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,439
• List price: $236,999
• Delta: -14.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Keefer	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,228 (0%)	1mo	$205,990	$168	92
125 Bugbee	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+0%)	3mo	$230,990	$188	82
189 Bugbee	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+0%)	4mo	$229,990	$187	81
3290 Everett St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	3mo	$305,990	$217	62
3345 Everett St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	3mo	$304,990	$216	60
190 Barcelona	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,274 (+4%)	13mo	$299,000	$235	60
3221 Everett St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	5mo	$300,990	$213	59
381 Barcelona St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,278 (+4%)	15mo	$285,000	$223	52
175 Grace St	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-13%)	12mo	$245,000	$230	33
1495 Marley	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	22mo	$335,990	$238	31
130 Tofalla	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	21mo	$313,990	$223	30
189 Grace	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+12%)	10mo	$265,000	$192	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-77,260
• Equity at exit: $41,218

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-123,214
• Equity at exit: $23,901

Cash invested: $77,403 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,450
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,147/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $215,147

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-328	+0% $-424	+5% $-519	+10% $-615
Rent	-10% $-572	-5% $-498	+0% $-424	+5% $-349	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-284	-0.5pp $-353	base $-424	+0.5pp $-495	+1.0pp $-568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,110
• Closing costs: $8,293
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	2d	1	0.15mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	13d	1	0.39mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	18d	1	0.43mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$2,000	$1.39	5d	1	0.46mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,984	$2.07	2d	42	0.53mi
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	5d	1	0.57mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,950	$1.46	16d	1	0.66mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,330	$1.36	44d	1	0.73mi
4300 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,295	$2.71	3d	13	0.93mi
4624 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1172	$1,347	$1.15	2d	8	1.16mi
1050 Wittenburg Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,685	$1.91	2d	19	1.22mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,999 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $236,999 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,999 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,999 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,999 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $236,999 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $236,999 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $236,999 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $236,999 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,999 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,999 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,999 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,999 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    price $236,999 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    The first level of this two-story home features a spacious open floorplan, allowing for effortless flow between the family room, kitchen and dining room. Access to the outdoor space makes it easy to entertain. All three bedrooms are situated on the second level, including the restful owner's suite.

15. 2026-02-16
    listed $236,990 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    The first level of this two-story home features a spacious open floorplan, allowing for effortless flow between the family room, kitchen and dining room. Access to the outdoor space makes it easy to entertain. All three bedrooms are situated on the second level, including the restful owner's suite.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,147
• − Insurance: −$1,382
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$8,042
• Taxable loss: −$10,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,420
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathroom fixtures can appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve both aesthetics and functionality.
• Both HVAC system — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal can significantly increase property value and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathroom fixtures can appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve both aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal can significantly increase property value and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $236,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $236,990 Zillow