Northwood Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$236,999

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,228 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first level of this two-story home features a spacious open floorplan, allowing for effortless flow between the family room, kitchen and dining room. Access to the outdoor space makes it easy to entertain. All three bedrooms are situated on the second level, including the restful owner's suite.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $236,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,445.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-428 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura B Negley El (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 1,007 students, 29% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,271 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.76%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,445
• List price: $236,999
• Delta: -12.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Keefer	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,228 (0%)	2mo	$205,990	$168	91
297 Keefer	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+0%)	0mo	$252,990	$206	85
125 Bugbee	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+0%)	4mo	$230,990	$188	80
189 Bugbee	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+0%)	6mo	$229,990	$187	80
110 Madrid	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,274 (+4%)	0mo	$269,900	$212	72
3290 Everett St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	4mo	$305,990	$217	61
3345 Everett St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	4mo	$304,990	$216	59
190 Barcelona	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,274 (+4%)	14mo	$299,000	$235	59
3221 Everett St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	7mo	$300,990	$213	57
155 Parsons	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+15%)	0mo	$314,999	$223	56
175 Grace St	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-13%)	14mo	$245,000	$230	32
189 Grace	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+12%)	12mo	$265,000	$192	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-76,592
• Equity at exit: $40,473

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-122,445
• Equity at exit: $23,470

Cash invested: $76,005 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $252,000 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 140 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,423
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,072/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,375

Max offer price $209,505

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-334	+0% $-428	+5% $-522	+10% $-616
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-500	+0% $-428	+5% $-356	+10% $-283
Rate	-1.0pp $-291	-0.5pp $-359	base $-428	+0.5pp $-498	+1.0pp $-570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,861
• Closing costs: $8,143
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	51d	1	0.15mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	61d	1	0.39mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	67d	1	0.43mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,800	$1.26	16d	1	0.46mi
228 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,900	$1.54	21d	1	0.48mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,984	$2.07	9d	42	0.53mi
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	53d	1	0.57mi
151 Rikardson Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$1,669	$1.78	9d	8	0.62mi
1181 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,825	$1.37	28d	1	0.65mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,800	$1.35	21d	1	0.66mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,330	$1.36	9d	19	0.73mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,330	$1.36	93d	1	0.73mi
4300 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,295	$2.71	9d	12	0.93mi
1075 Vaughn Kyle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$2,314	$3.02	9d	11	1.00mi
4624 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	9d	9	1.16mi
1050 Wittenburg Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$1,639	$1.54	9d	14	1.22mi
251B Utterback Unit 251 B Utterback Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	21d	1	1.36mi
251 Utterback Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	21d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $236,999 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $236,999 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $236,999 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $236,999 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $236,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $236,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $236,999 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $236,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $236,999 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $236,999 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $236,999 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $236,999 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $236,999 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $236,999 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $236,999 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $236,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $236,999 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $236,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $236,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $236,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $236,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $236,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $236,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $236,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $236,999 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $236,999 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $236,999 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $236,999 Active 137 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $236,999 Active 136 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $236,999 Active 135 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $236,999 Active 134 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $236,999 Active 133 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $236,999 Active 132 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $236,999 Active 131 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $236,999 Active 130 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $236,999 Active 128 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $236,999 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $236,999 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $236,999 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $236,999 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $236,999 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $236,999 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $236,999 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $236,999 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $236,999 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $236,999 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $236,999 Active 108 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,999 Active 107 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,999 Active 106 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,999 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,072
• − Insurance: −$1,357
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$7,897
• Taxable loss: −$10,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,414
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,140–$18,420 screening

This two-story home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathroom fixtures can appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve both aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal can significantly increase property value and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laura B Negley El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $236,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $236,990 Zillow