3914 Thornton St · Pace, FL 32571

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.27 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre Sale - On your Lot Sale for comp purposes only. Imagine a charming, single-story brick home, a classic cottage. The facade features warm, textured brick in earthy tones, giving it a timeless, welcoming feel. The covered front porch is a standout, with a gabled roof supported by custom columns. The porch is spacious enough for rocking chairs, perfect for enjoying a morning coffee. The low-maintenance yard will be freshly sodded, with neat landscaping that complements the home’s cozy vibe. Gutters and hurricane protection (fabric shield storm shutters) add practicality and peace of mind. The home sits on a lot just 4 miles from I-10, on a paved road. Interior - Open Living Area: Ste

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $240,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $226,250.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: S. S. Dixon Intermediate School (math 73% / reading 67%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 920 students, 40% FRL); Thomas L Sims Middle School (math 77% / reading 65%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,098 students, 34% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $203,195 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4308 Floridatown Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+1%)	1mo	$205,000	$162	94
3950 Thornton St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,167 (-7%)	8mo	$245,000	$210	76
4316 Floridatown Rd	0.11mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,316 (+5%)	8mo	$215,000	$163	72
4044 Edgefield St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+2%)	3mo	$245,000	$192	72
4225 Willow St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+10%)	8mo	$249,000	$181	72
4329 Floridatown Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,374 (+10%)	7mo	$235,000	$171	65
3985 Whitehall Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,172 (-6%)	10mo	$195,000	$166	64
3830 University St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+11%)	11mo	$285,000	$206	61
4187 Sixth Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	14mo	$205,000	$171	58
4210 Stephens Rd	0.26mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,375 (+10%)	16mo	$116,500	$85	51
3963 Edgefield St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-11%)	4mo	$225,000	$202	50
3725 Martin St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+14%)	9mo	$295,000	$207	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,548
• Equity at exit: $33,735

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-28,870
• Equity at exit: $19,562

Cash invested: $63,350 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,186
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$283 /mo · $3,394/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,979

Max offer price $226,250

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $120	+0% $42	+5% $-37	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-119	-5% $-39	+0% $42	+5% $122	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $99	base $42	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,562
• Closing costs: $6,788
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3982 Edgefield St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	15d	1	0.59mi
4606 Southern Pl Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,500	$1.05	15d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-09
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-09
   listed $240,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,674
• − Property taxes: −$3,394
• − Insurance: −$1,131
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$6,582
• Taxable loss: −$3,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$792
• After-tax cash flow: $1,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming single-story brick home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathroom. It has a covered porch and a low-maintenance yard, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add a small garden bed near the front door — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a small garden bed near the front door — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed — PARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $240,000 PARMLS