12 Avon Dr Unit J · Twin Rivers, NJ 08520

$179,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Condo · 62 Days on market

Built 1968 $206/sqft · 26% below area Est $242k · 26% under $515/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this freshly painted, sun-filled condo! Natural light pours into the spacious living area through multiple oversized new windows, enhanced by new window treatments that beautifully frame the space. The open layout showcases newer laminate wood flooring that flows seamlessly from the living room into the kitchen, where you’ll find abundant cabinetry, under-cabinet lighting, built-in shelving, and space for a comfortable eat-in area. The bright bedroom features large windows and a ceiling fan with integrated lighting. The full bathroom offers a tub/shower combination with sliding glass doors, half-wall tile, and generous storage. Relax outside and enjoy the fresh spring air on your newly replaced balcony. Residents of this community enjoy amenities including a swimming pool, basketball court and tot-lot. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own—schedule your visit today! The association requires the owner to occupy for 2 years before the unit can be rented. American Way HOA fee includes: Exterior responsibility, maintenance/repair of the HVAC, water/sewer, trees and landscape. Twin Rivers Community Trust covers snow removal, mowing, trash/recyclables, pool, basketball court and tot-lot. Easy Access to NJ Turnpike, shopping and restaurants!

Key facts

• Abundant cabinetry
• Built-in shelving
• $515 HOA

Tags

• OVERSIZED NEW WINDOWS
• NEW WINDOW TREATMENTS
• NEWER LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• UNDER-CABINET LIGHTING
• BUILT-IN SHELVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (19.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Windsor Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #287 of 472 in NJ (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $179k implies a 415% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $143,364 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.90%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,052
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -26.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-44,346
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-57,410
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08520

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$515
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,218

Max offer price $143,364

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-123	-5% $-184	+0% $-246	+5% $-308	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-322	+0% $-246	+5% $-171	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-201	base $-246	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
R2 Avon Dr East Windsor, NJ	1.0	1.0	775	$1,700	$2.19	2d	1	0.32mi
6 Twin Rivers Dr N Unit L6 East Windsor, NJ	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	2d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $515 · $6,180/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removalpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $195,000 Active 1312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1296 chars)

    Welcome to this freshly painted, sun-filled condo! Natural light pours into the spacious living area through multiple oversized new windows, enhanced by new window treatments that beautifully frame the space. The open layout showcases newer laminate wood flooring that flows seamlessly from the living room into the kitchen, where you'll find abundant cabinetry, under-cabinet lighting, built-in shelving, and space for a comfortable eat-in area. The bright bedroom features large windows and a ceiling fan with integrated lighting. The full bathroom offers a tub/shower combination with sliding glass doors, half-wall tile, and generous storage. Relax outside and enjoy the fresh spring air on your newly replaced balcony. Residents of this community enjoy amenities including a swimming pool, basketball court and tot-lot. Don't miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own--schedule your visit today! The association requires the owner to occupy for 2 years before the unit can be rented. American Way HOA fee includes: Exterior resposibility, maintenance/repair of the HVAC, water/sewer, trees and landscape. Twin Rivers Community Trust covers snow removal, mowing, trash/recyclables, pool, basketball court and tot-lot. Easy Access to NJ Turnpike, shopping and restaurants!

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $195,000 Active 1296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1296 chars)

    Welcome to this freshly painted, sun-filled condo! Natural light pours into the spacious living area through multiple oversized new windows, enhanced by new window treatments that beautifully frame the space. The open layout showcases newer laminate wood flooring that flows seamlessly from the living room into the kitchen, where you'll find abundant cabinetry, under-cabinet lighting, built-in shelving, and space for a comfortable eat-in area. The bright bedroom features large windows and a ceiling fan with integrated lighting. The full bathroom offers a tub/shower combination with sliding glass doors, half-wall tile, and generous storage. Relax outside and enjoy the fresh spring air on your newly replaced balcony. Residents of this community enjoy amenities including a swimming pool, basketball court and tot-lot. Don't miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own--schedule your visit today! The association requires the owner to occupy for 2 years before the unit can be rented. American Way HOA fee includes: Exterior resposibility, maintenance/repair of the HVAC, water/sewer, trees and landscape. Twin Rivers Community Trust covers snow removal, mowing, trash/recyclables, pool, basketball court and tot-lot. Easy Access to NJ Turnpike, shopping and restaurants!

16. 1999-10-12
    soldstatus $34,750
17. 1999-10-08
    historical
18. 1999-06-04
    listed $34,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − HOA: −$6,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$5,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,388
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Windsor Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3404320
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $80,846
• Composite: 31.1/100
• National rank: #6072
• State rank: #287 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Twin Rivers

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twin Rivers, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,504
• Household income: $118,010
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 473.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 19% Two or more races 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 10% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -380.11%
• Current HPI: 286.6652
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+461.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $195,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-10-12 Sold (MLS) $34,750 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-10-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-06-04 Listed $34,750 BRIGHT MLS