Emily Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$405,995

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,375 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Exquisitely crafted with modern architecture and luxury appointments, the Emily offers a versatile floor plan that fits within every lifestyle. An impressive foyer hallway with a tray ceiling reveals the expansive great room and casual dining area that overlooks a large covered patio. Enhanced by a large center island with breakfast bar, the kitchen is wonderfully designed with plenty of counter and cabinet space, and a sizable walk-in pantry. Defining the alluring primary bedroom suite is a beautiful tray ceiling, a generous walk-in closet, and a marvelous primary bath with dual vanities, a large soaking tub, a luxe shower, and a private water closet. The secondary bedroom features a walk-

Key facts

• Casual dining area
• Large covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• FOYER HALLWAY
• GREAT ROOM
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $405,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Emily); Located in Missouri City, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2375

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active plan (Emily)

🏗️ New construction. The $405,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $463,073.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $406k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $366k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $366k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $366,304 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $463,073
• List price: $405,995
• Delta: -12.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2006 Laurelwood Trl	0.51mi	3/3.0	2,408 (+1%)	5mo	$399,900	$166	70
10502 William Park Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,350 (-1%)	6mo	$420,000	$179	65
10147 Deerpark Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,572 (+8%)	11mo	$405,000	$157	64
1610 Country Air Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,388 (+0%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	60
10534 Emory Park	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,538 (+7%)	7mo	$439,655	$173	57
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.38mi	3/3.0	2,033 (-14%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	56
1518 Country Air Ln	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,388 (+0%)	10mo	$405,000	$170	54
2023 Green Haven Ct	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,623 (+10%)	8mo	$450,000	$172	54
10751 Kingston Spg	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,472 (+4%)	1mo	$424,000	$172	52
2023 Deer Vly	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,696 (+14%)	12mo	$464,900	$172	52
10723 Kingston Spring Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,525 (+6%)	1mo	$449,000	$178	51
1515 Park Path Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,068 (-13%)	9mo	$375,000	$181	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-78,842
• Equity at exit: $97,120

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-111,100
• Equity at exit: $89,956

Cash invested: $129,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,428
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$579 /mo · $6,946/yr
• Insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$769
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,051

Max offer price $418,738

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-146	+0% $-306	+5% $-466	+10% $-626
Rent	-10% $-596	-5% $-451	+0% $-306	+5% $-162	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-189	base $-306	+0.5pp $-426	+1.0pp $-548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,768
• Closing costs: $13,892
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	45d	1	0.27mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.97mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $405,995 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,995 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $405,995 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $405,995 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $405,995 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $405,995 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $405,995 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $405,995 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $405,995 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $405,995 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $405,995 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $405,995 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $405,995 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $405,995 Active 1034-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,939
• − Property taxes: −$6,946
• − Insurance: −$2,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,517
• − Management: −$3,517
• − Depreciation: −$13,471
• Taxable loss: −$11,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern, well-maintained home with excellent curb appeal and a spacious floor plan is move-in ready and ready to be enhanced with minor updates for increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B