2225 Lake Dr · Brickerville, PA 17073

$139,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 360 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2015

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 'cabin-like' home located in park-like setting community. Open concept with lots of windows providing abundance of light. 27 handle J & K Kitchen with granite counter tops and island. Rent includes Water, Trash and Snow removal. Efficient propane heat This is a perfect get-a-way after a long day at work!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2015
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,149 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warwick SD (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #158 of 539 in PA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Warwick Shs (math 86% / reading 50%, grade B, #59 of 437 statewide, top 14%, 1,230 students, 28% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warwick SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $140k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.12%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-13,433
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $353
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17073

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $192	+0% $144	+5% $96	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $86	+0% $144	+5% $202	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $180	base $144	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $139,900 Active
3. 2026-04-18
   historical $139,900
4. 2020-01-23
   soldstatus $74,900 Closed 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   Adorable 'cabin-like' home located in park-like setting community. Open concept with lots of windows providing abundance of light. 27 handle J & K Kitchen with granite counter tops and island. Rent includes Water, Trash and Snow removal. Efficient propane heat This is a perfect get-a-way after a long day at work!

5. 2019-11-25
   status Pending 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   Adorable 'cabin-like' home located in park-like setting community. Open concept with lots of windows providing abundance of light. 27 handle J & K Kitchen with granite counter tops and island. Rent includes Water, Trash and Snow removal. Efficient propane heat This is a perfect get-a-way after a long day at work!

6. 2019-10-04
   listed $74,900 Active 321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (321 chars)

   Adorable 'cabin-like' home located in park-like setting community. Open concept with lots of windows providing abundance of light. 27 handle J & K Kitchen with granite counter tops and island. Rent includes Water, Trash and Snow removal. Efficient propane heat This is a perfect get-a-way after a long day at work!

7. 2011-08-12
   soldstatus $10,000 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   Cozy cottage style mobile with 257 SqFt of extra living space (unknown age of addition). Newer bathroom and Ondura roofing. Located close to Lancaster Co attractions. Wooded lot rental includes water, trash & snow removal. Lake on general property, great for cozy get-a-way. New owner will need park approval.

8. 2011-08-02
   historical 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   Cozy cottage style mobile with 257 SqFt of extra living space (unknown age of addition). Newer bathroom and Ondura roofing. Located close to Lancaster Co attractions. Wooded lot rental includes water, trash & snow removal. Lake on general property, great for cozy get-a-way. New owner will need park approval.

9. 2011-05-20
   listed $15,500 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   Cozy cottage style mobile with 257 SqFt of extra living space (unknown age of addition). Newer bathroom and Ondura roofing. Located close to Lancaster Co attractions. Wooded lot rental includes water, trash & snow removal. Lake on general property, great for cozy get-a-way. New owner will need park approval.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$1,366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick SD
• NCES district ID: 4224960
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $63,696
• Composite: 44.03/100
• National rank: #2884
• State rank: #158 of 539 in PA

Livability — Brickerville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1149
• US rank: #13260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,064

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.77%
• Current HPI: 208.5025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+802.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-23 Sold (MLS) $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-04 Listed $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-08-12 Sold (MLS) $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-08-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-05-20 Listed $15,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-6.7%/yr

Latest (2019): $59 · -17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.