806 E Brown St · Llano, TX 78643

$227,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 171 Days on market

Built 2024 0.28 ac lot $190/sqft · 5% above area Est $216k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$3000 in BUYER'S INCENTIVES!!! Brand new build! This adorable home is in the heart of Llano in a quiet neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms with an open concept floor plan, this home is ready for it's very first owner! Step inside to discover beautiful luxury vinyl plank flooring through out, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, tiled bathrooms and all new appliances! Priced to sell, this one is a must see & won't last long!

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• All new appliances
• Tiled bathrooms

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• TILED BATHROOMS
• ALL NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($62/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#407 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,353
• List price: $227,500
• Delta: 5.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 E Green St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,121 (-6%)	6mo	$149,000	$133	68
1304 E Luce St	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,244 (+4%)	4mo	$225,000	$181	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-36,505
• Equity at exit: $33,921

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-31,237
• Equity at exit: $19,670

Cash invested: $63,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78643

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,444/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,993

Max offer price $227,500

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $70	+0% $5	+5% $-59	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-74	+0% $5	+5% $84	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $63	base $5	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,875
• Closing costs: $6,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 W Haynie St Llano, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,000	$1.41	44d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,500 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,500 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,500 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,500 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $227,500 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,500 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $227,500 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,500 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,500 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,500 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $227,500 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,500 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,500 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,500 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,500 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,500 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $227,500 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    $3000 in BUYER'S INCENTIVES!!! Brand new build! This adorable home is in the heart of Llano in a quiet neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms with an open concept floor plan, this home is ready for it's very first owner! Step inside to discover beautiful luxury vinyl plank flooring through out, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, tiled bathrooms and all new appliances! Priced to sell, this one is a must see & won't last long!

18. 2026-03-25
    price $234,900 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    $3000 in BUYER'S INCENTIVES!!! Brand new build! This adorable home is in the heart of Llano in a quiet neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms with an open concept floor plan, this home is ready for it's very first owner! Step inside to discover beautiful luxury vinyl plank flooring through out, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, tiled bathrooms and all new appliances! Priced to sell, this one is a must see & won't last long!

19. 2025-12-29
    listed $229,000 Active 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    $3000 in BUYER'S INCENTIVES!!! Brand new build! This adorable home is in the heart of Llano in a quiet neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms with an open concept floor plan, this home is ready for it's very first owner! Step inside to discover beautiful luxury vinyl plank flooring through out, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, tiled bathrooms and all new appliances! Priced to sell, this one is a must see & won't last long!

20. 2025-11-25
    price $229,000
21. 2025-09-30
    price $239,000
22. 2025-08-12
    price $249,000
23. 2025-06-17
    price $254,900
24. 2025-02-13
    price $259,000
25. 2025-02-13
    price $259,000
26. 2024-03-25
    listed $275,000 Active
27. 2023-03-23
    soldstatus
28. 2022-06-09
    soldstatus
29. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus
30. 2021-05-07
    listed $21,000
31. 2019-04-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,444 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,163 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$719/yr (+$60/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,744
• − Property taxes: −$3,444
• − Insurance: −$1,138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$6,618
• Taxable loss: −$3,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$908
• After-tax cash flow: $970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Llano

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #8433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Llano, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,837

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.16%
• Current HPI: 760.73
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+983.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $227,500 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $234,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-12-29 Listed $229,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $229,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $239,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $249,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $254,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $259,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $259,000 CHCMLS
• 2024-03-25 Listed $275,000 CHCMLS
• 2023-03-23 Sold (MLS) — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-07 Listed $21,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,444 · +18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.