4114 Holiday Dr #18 · Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$147,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Condo public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1984 $368/sqft · 33% below area Est $221k · 33% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.2/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover one of the best beachside values in Panama City Beach—a rental-ready studio just steps from the sand. Located in Sand Castle Villas, this beautifully maintained and fully furnished studio condo is truly turnkey and ready to generate income from day one. With custom built-in loft beds, a luxury main sleeping area, and a smart, space-efficient layout, making it especially attractive for short-term rental demand. This condo is one of only two units in the entire complex featuring a rare U-shaped kitchen, offering extra cabinet and counter space—a standout feature for guests and owners alike. The kitchen is fully stocked and features all white appliances, while tile flooring throughout, serene coastal tones, and tasteful décor create a bright, inviting beach retreat. Enjoy less than a one-minute walk (approximately 150 steps) to the white sugar sands and emerald waters via Beach Access 13 and 14. The complex is well known for its strong short-term and long-term rental performance. Additional highlights include: Private fenced pool and outdoor shower, Private laundry room just outside the unit with washer, dryer, and extra storage, one assigned parking space plus overflow parking, and balcony space to relax and enjoy the coastal breeze. Peaceful, smaller complex with a personable, laid-back atmosphere, Close to restaurants, shopping, and a short drive to Pier Park. Whether you're looking for an affordable personal beach getaway, a high-performing investment, or both—this studio delivers exceptional value, charm, and income potential under $150K in today's market.

Key facts

• Private fenced pool
• Rental ready studio
• U-shaped kitchen

Tags

• RENTAL READY STUDIO
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN LOFT BEDS
• U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE FENCED POOL
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• PRIVATE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-597 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Grand Lagoon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $147k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,422 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.39%
• DSCR: 0.23
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,696
• List price: $147,000
• Delta: -33.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-62,009
• Equity at exit: $21,918

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.52×
• Total profit: $-103,710
• Equity at exit: $12,710

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,487/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$655
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $41,616

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $147,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $147,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,000 Active 141 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    price $147,000 1618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1618 chars)

    Discover one of the best beachside values in Panama City Beach—a rental-ready studio just steps from the sand. Located in Sand Castle Villas, this beautifully maintained and fully furnished studio condo is truly turnkey and ready to generate income from day one. With custom built-in loft beds, a luxury main sleeping area, and a smart, space-efficient layout, making it especially attractive for short-term rental demand. This condo is one of only two units in the entire complex featuring a rare U-shaped kitchen, offering extra cabinet and counter space—a standout feature for guests and owners alike. The kitchen is fully stocked and features all white appliances, while tile flooring throughout, serene coastal tones, and tasteful décor create a bright, inviting beach retreat. Enjoy less than a one-minute walk (approximately 150 steps) to the white sugar sands and emerald waters via Beach Access 13 and 14. The complex is well known for its strong short-term and long-term rental performance. Additional highlights include: Private fenced pool and outdoor shower, Private laundry room just outside the unit with washer, dryer, and extra storage, one assigned parking space plus overflow parking, and balcony space to relax and enjoy the coastal breeze. Peaceful, smaller complex with a personable, laid-back atmosphere, Close to restaurants, shopping, and a short drive to Pier Park. Whether you're looking for an affordable personal beach getaway, a high-performing investment, or both—this studio delivers exceptional value, charm, and income potential under $150K in today's market.

19. 2026-01-09
    listed $149,900 Active 1618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1618 chars)

    Discover one of the best beachside values in Panama City Beach—a rental-ready studio just steps from the sand. Located in Sand Castle Villas, this beautifully maintained and fully furnished studio condo is truly turnkey and ready to generate income from day one. With custom built-in loft beds, a luxury main sleeping area, and a smart, space-efficient layout, making it especially attractive for short-term rental demand. This condo is one of only two units in the entire complex featuring a rare U-shaped kitchen, offering extra cabinet and counter space—a standout feature for guests and owners alike. The kitchen is fully stocked and features all white appliances, while tile flooring throughout, serene coastal tones, and tasteful décor create a bright, inviting beach retreat. Enjoy less than a one-minute walk (approximately 150 steps) to the white sugar sands and emerald waters via Beach Access 13 and 14. The complex is well known for its strong short-term and long-term rental performance. Additional highlights include: Private fenced pool and outdoor shower, Private laundry room just outside the unit with washer, dryer, and extra storage, one assigned parking space plus overflow parking, and balcony space to relax and enjoy the coastal breeze. Peaceful, smaller complex with a personable, laid-back atmosphere, Close to restaurants, shopping, and a short drive to Pier Park. Whether you're looking for an affordable personal beach getaway, a high-performing investment, or both—this studio delivers exceptional value, charm, and income potential under $150K in today's market.

20. 2021-12-14
    historical
21. 2021-12-14
    historical
22. 2011-10-28
    soldstatus $52,000
23. 2009-08-15
    listed $68,900
24. 2006-04-10
    listed $189,900
25. 2000-05-22
    soldstatus $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$1,487
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − HOA: −$7,860
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable loss: −$9,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,316
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lower Grand Lagoon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+230.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $147,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $149,900 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2011-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-15 Listed $68,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-04-10 Listed $189,900 CPARMLS
• 2000-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,487 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.