266 Smith Rd · DeFuniak Springs, FL 32433

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,958 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1995 0.38 ac lot Est $186k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offering modern finishes and peaceful privacy on a spacious wooded lot. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout, fresh neutral tones, upgraded lighting, and a stylish kitchen with custom cabinetry, center island, and ample counter space. Both bathrooms have been tastefully renovated with quality finishes, including a stunning primary bath with oversized vanity. The split-bedroom floor plan provides comfort and functionality for everyday living. Outside, enjoy plenty of room for vehicles, boats, or toys, plus a workshop, a separate storage shed, and a screened-in back porch perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Convenient country setting with roo

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Ample counter space
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SPACIOUS WOODED LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in the Oakwood Hills subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1995
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Paved road surface; Lot dimensions approximately 200 x 300

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Master bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (all full)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Living room on the first floor; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.8% in DeFuniak Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Maude Saunders Elementary School (math 58% / reading 52%, grade C, #872 of 2,144 statewide, top 42%, 553 students, 87% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $179k implies a 348% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.76%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,010
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
714 E Picasso Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,052 (+5%)	2mo	$195,500	$95	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $118,046
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $331,216
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32433

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $455/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,331

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $179,000 Active
18. 2018-10-26
    historical
19. 2018-04-26
    listed $305,000
20. 2018-04-26
    listed $305,000
21. 2016-08-16
    soldstatus $40,000
22. 2016-08-11
    soldstatus $40,000
23. 2016-08-11
    soldstatus $40,000
24. 2016-08-03
    listed $40,000
25. 2010-09-02
    soldstatus $46,000
26. 2010-04-30
    soldstatus $46,000
27. 2010-04-30
    soldstatus $46,000
28. 2010-04-01
    listed $46,000
29. 2010-04-01
    listed $46,000
30. 2008-01-09
    listed $49,500
31. 2000-02-28
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $455 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,031/yr (+$86/mo · 226.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$455
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $965
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$232
• After-tax cash flow: $3,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — DeFuniak Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #14475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 19,746
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,746
• Household income: $52,199
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.77%
• Current HPI: 367.046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1093.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $179,000 ECAR
• 2018-10-26 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2018-04-26 Listed $305,000 NAMLS
• 2018-04-26 Listed $305,000 ECAR
• 2016-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-11 Sold (MLS) $40,000 NAMLS
• 2016-08-11 Sold (MLS) $40,000 ECAR
• 2016-08-03 Listed $40,000 NAMLS
• 2010-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-30 Sold (MLS) $46,000 ECAR
• 2010-04-30 Sold (MLS) $46,000 NAMLS
• 2010-04-01 Listed $46,000 ECAR
• 2010-04-01 Listed $46,000 NAMLS
• 2008-01-09 Listed $49,500 ECAR
• 2000-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $455 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.