828 Bell Dr · Madisonville, KY 42431

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot Est $104k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Currently leased for $775 month. Tenant pays all utilites.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot roughly 60 x 185 (approx. 0.26 acre); Located in the Pine Forest subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Electric range
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling (ceiling fan)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $70,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$104,408) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($795 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.0% in Madisonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#132 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $70k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,408
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
777 Sugg St	0.11mi	2/1.0	840 (-0%)	7mo	$105,000	$125	89
820 Bell Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0	781 (-7%)	8mo	$84,900	$109	81
768 Sugg St	0.12mi	2/1.0	872 (+4%)	14mo	$97,500	$112	77
60 N Spring St	0.55mi	2/1.0	924 (+10%)	2mo	$120,000	$130	56
352 Oates St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	816 (-3%)	6mo	$112,000	$137	51
319 Murray St	0.62mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	11mo	$80,000	$89	50
413 W Arch St	0.64mi	2/1.0	964 (+14%)	8mo	$96,910	$101	39
558 Oak St	0.65mi	2/1.0	762 (-10%)	19mo	$87,000	$114	38
410 Brown Ln	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	18mo	$119,000	$124	24
474 Alan Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	20mo	$120,000	$125	24
501 Alan Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	21mo	$153,000	$159	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,030
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $16,776
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42431

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $447/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $549

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $214	+0% $195	+5% $175	+10% $155
Rent	-10% $132	-5% $163	+0% $195	+5% $226	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $212	base $195	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 Princeton Rd Unit 504 Madisonville, KY	2.0	1.0	864	$795	$0.92	14d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    status Active
18. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-13
    status Active
20. 2026-04-07
    status Pending
21. 2026-02-23
    status Active
22. 2026-02-05
    status Pending
23. 2026-02-03
    status Active
24. 2026-01-19
    status Pending
25. 2026-01-15
    listed $70,000 Active
26. 2023-03-27
    soldstatus $45,000
27. 2004-05-26
    soldstatus $43,900
28. 2001-03-01
    soldstatus $36,500
29. 1975-04-01
    soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$155/yr (+$13/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$447
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$763
• − Management: −$763
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $1,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$302
• After-tax cash flow: $2,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins County
• NCES district ID: 2102860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $42,436
• Composite: 29.56/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #65 of 165 in KY

Livability — Madisonville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #6200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madisonville, KY
• City population: 27,095
• Population (ZIP): 27,095

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.52%
• Current HPI: 220.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+566.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-05-01 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-04-07 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-02-05 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-01-19 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-01-15 Listed $70,000 MHCBOR
• 2023-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $43,900 Public Records
• 2001-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records
• 1975-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $447 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.