12239 W Village Dr Unit B · Houston, TX 77039

$99,990

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,534 sqft · Townhouse public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1979 1,613 sqft lot $65/sqft · at area comps Est $96k · at est. $202/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $202 HOA
• Built 1979
• Listed 154 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $692 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,301
• List price: $99,990
• Delta: 3.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12223 Wild Pine Dr Unit D	0.22mi	2/2.5	1,555 (+1%)	2mo	$110,900	$71	82
5714 Easthampton Dr Unit C	0.15mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,527 (-0%)	4mo	$125,000	$82	80
12419 W Village Dr Unit A	0.19mi	2/1.5	1,526 (-0%)	13mo	$58,000	$38	80
12223 W Village Dr Unit D	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,619 (+6%)	12mo	$55,000	$34	79
5618 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,411 (-8%)	4mo	$64,900	$46	77
5755 Easthampton Dr Unit C	0.14mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,623 (+6%)	1mo	$117,999	$73	74
5731 Easthampton Dr Unit A	0.13mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,623 (+6%)	5mo	$122,500	$75	71
12203 W Village Dr Unit C	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,698 (+11%)	2mo	$139,000	$82	69
5767 Easthampton Dr Unit C	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (+6%)	12mo	$128,000	$79	65
12339 W Village Dr Unit D	0.14mi	2/1.5	1,340 (-13%)	12mo	$55,000	$41	62
12307 W Village Dr Unit A	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+13%)	10mo	$119,900	$69	58
12282 Wild Pine Dr Unit A	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,313 (-14%)	11mo	$99,900	$76	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,402
• Equity at exit: $14,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $7,391
• Equity at exit: $8,645

Cash invested: $27,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77039

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$202
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,092

Max offer price $99,990

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,998
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5001 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1065	$1,006	$0.94	43d	16	0.48mi
4610 Anice St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$1,566	$0.88	12d	1	1.14mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	1.16mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,118	$1.19	1d	7	1.24mi
5526 Rotan Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$900	$0.86	18d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $202 · $2,424/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,990 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,990 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,990 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,990 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,990 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,990 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,990 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,990 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,990 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,990 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,990 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,990 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,990 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,990 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    price $99,990
16. 2026-01-15
    status Active
17. 2025-09-19
    listed $119,000 Active
18. 2025-09-19
    historical
19. 2025-09-19
    price $119,000
20. 2006-03-22
    soldstatus
21. 1994-03-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$698/yr (+$58/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − HOA: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $376
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$90
• After-tax cash flow: $1,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,862
• Household income: $47,119
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1128.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 15% Black 9% White 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.88%
• Current HPI: 316.66
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $99,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2006-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,132 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.