530 County Road 445 · Tula, MS 38655

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.39 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 530 County Road 445 in Oxford, MS! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home offers comfortable living in a peaceful and private setting just a short 20-minute drive from downtown Oxford and the Ole Miss campus. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living room and kitchen area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The split floor plan provides added privacy, while an additional bonus room offers flexibility as a home office, guest room, or potential 4th bedroom. Outside, the property features a 2023 storage shed, providing excellent space for tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity, this property combines convenience, space, and serene surroundings. Don't miss your chance to see it!

Key facts

• Bonus room
• 2023 storage shed
• 0.39 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• 2023 STORAGE SHED
• PEACEFUL AND PRIVATE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lafayette County School District (town): math 47% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #29 of 130 in MS (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 503 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.13%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $30,197
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $106,886
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38655

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $316/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $865	-5% $824	+0% $783	+5% $742	+10% $527
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $701	+0% $783	+5% $864	+10% $946
Rate	-1.0pp $856	-0.5pp $820	base $783	+0.5pp $745	+1.0pp $707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 801-char remark

   Show marketing remark (801 chars)

   Welcome to 530 County Road 445 in Oxford, MS! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home offers comfortable living in a peaceful and private setting just a short 20-minute drive from downtown Oxford and the Ole Miss campus. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living room and kitchen area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The split floor plan provides added privacy, while an additional bonus room offers flexibility as a home office, guest room, or potential 4th bedroom. Outside, the property features a 2023 storage shed, providing excellent space for tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity, this property combines convenience, space, and serene surroundings. Don't miss your chance to see it!

2. 2026-04-27
   price $145,000 801-char remark

   Show marketing remark (801 chars)

   Welcome to 530 County Road 445 in Oxford, MS! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home offers comfortable living in a peaceful and private setting just a short 20-minute drive from downtown Oxford and the Ole Miss campus. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living room and kitchen area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The split floor plan provides added privacy, while an additional bonus room offers flexibility as a home office, guest room, or potential 4th bedroom. Outside, the property features a 2023 storage shed, providing excellent space for tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity, this property combines convenience, space, and serene surroundings. Don't miss your chance to see it!

3. 2026-04-20
   price $150,000 801-char remark

   Show marketing remark (801 chars)

   Welcome to 530 County Road 445 in Oxford, MS! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home offers comfortable living in a peaceful and private setting just a short 20-minute drive from downtown Oxford and the Ole Miss campus. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living room and kitchen area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The split floor plan provides added privacy, while an additional bonus room offers flexibility as a home office, guest room, or potential 4th bedroom. Outside, the property features a 2023 storage shed, providing excellent space for tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity, this property combines convenience, space, and serene surroundings. Don't miss your chance to see it!

4. 2026-04-13
   listed $160,000 Active 801-char remark

   Show marketing remark (801 chars)

   Welcome to 530 County Road 445 in Oxford, MS! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home offers comfortable living in a peaceful and private setting just a short 20-minute drive from downtown Oxford and the Ole Miss campus. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living room and kitchen area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The split floor plan provides added privacy, while an additional bonus room offers flexibility as a home office, guest room, or potential 4th bedroom. Outside, the property features a 2023 storage shed, providing excellent space for tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity, this property combines convenience, space, and serene surroundings. Don't miss your chance to see it!

5. 2025-05-01
   listed $154,500 Active
6. 2024-12-05
   price $159,500
7. 2024-11-15
   listed $167,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $316 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,146 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 262.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$316
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
• − Management: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $7,414
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,779
• After-tax cash flow: $7,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation, with potential for significant value increase through kitchen and bathroom updates.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of updating
• Minor paint — faded and could be refreshed

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathrooms would increase both resale and rental value
• Both paint refresh — refreshing the paint would improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
paint · faded and could be refreshed	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathrooms would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint refresh — refreshing the paint would improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,476
• Composite: 37.09/100
• National rank: #4498
• State rank: #29 of 130 in MS

Livability — Tula

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lafayette County · 46,156 people
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• Population (ZIP): 46,156
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1892.0

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,984 people
• By 2030: 74,726 · +11.6%
• By 2040: 90,806 · +35.6%
• By 2050: 108,114 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 151,215 · +125.7%
• By 2100: 187,997 · +180.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.3% · R 60.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.86%
• Current HPI: 211.5486
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NCMBR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $145,000 NCMBR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $150,000 NCMBR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $160,000 NCMBR
• 2025-05-01 Listed $154,500 NCMBR
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $159,500 NCMBR
• 2024-11-15 Listed $167,500 NCMBR

Property tax history

-8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $316 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.