5383 Coastal Loop · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$665,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2015 7,491 sqft lot $353/sqft · 8% below area Est $738k · 10% under $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this home nestled in a quiet, peaceful neighborhood designed for relaxed living and connection to the outdoors. Located in a unique golf cart-friendly community, you can easily cruise to nearby restaurants, the bay, and local amenities while enjoying the coastal lifestyle. Just minutes from Birch Bay State Park, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers access to scenic walking trails, open fields, and pet-friendly spaces where you can enjoy time with your furry companion. Take in stunning views and unforgettable sunsets that make this location truly special. Conveniently located near the Canada-United States border, you're just a short drive from visiting the vibrant city of Vancou

Key facts

• Pet friendly spaces
• Private patio
• Flex room

Tags

• GOLF CART FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS
• PET FRIENDLY SPACES
• PRIVATE PATIO
• WALK IN PANTRY
• FLEX ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $665k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (55.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (59.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (59.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $71k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$114k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($625k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $355k; list at $665k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $272,318 (59.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.40%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 20.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $737,826
• List price: $665,000
• Delta: -9.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5321 Ocean Cove Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,825 (-3%)	9mo	$714,900	$392	79
6968 Birch Bay Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,698 (-10%)	1mo	$810,000	$477	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $229,819
• Equity at exit: $599,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $781,132
• Equity at exit: $1,291,949

Cash invested: $186,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 20.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,009/yr
• Insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-2,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,356

Max offer price $297,637

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,703	-5% $-1,891	+0% $-2,080	+5% $-2,268	+10% $-2,456
Rent	-10% $-2,295	-5% $-2,187	+0% $-2,080	+5% $-1,972	+10% $-1,864
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,745	-0.5pp $-1,910	base $-2,080	+0.5pp $-2,252	+1.0pp $-2,427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $166,250
• Closing costs: $19,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $665,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $665,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $665,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $665,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $665,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $665,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $665,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $679,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $679,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $679,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $679,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $679,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $679,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $679,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $679,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $679,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $679,000
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $699,000 Active
19. 2016-04-12
    historical
20. 2016-04-11
    soldstatus $354,800 Sold
21. 2016-03-08
    status Pending
22. 2016-02-25
    status Pending Inspection
23. 2016-02-02
    listed $354,800 Active
24. 2015-08-25
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold
25. 2015-08-25
    soldstatus $70,000
26. 2015-07-30
    status Pending Feasibility
27. 2014-09-18
    status Active
28. 2014-09-14
    historical Expired
29. 2014-03-14
    status Active
30. 2014-03-13
    historical Expired
31. 2013-03-18
    listed $72,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,009 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,517 · $543/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,508/yr (+$126/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,250
• − Property taxes: −$5,009
• − Insurance: −$3,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,614
• − Management: −$2,614
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$19,345
• Taxable loss: −$38,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,136
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+836.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $679,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $699,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-12 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-11 Sold (MLS) $354,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-25 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-02 Listed $354,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-25 Sold (MLS) $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-18 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-14 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-13 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-18 Listed $72,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,009 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.