104 Kickapoo · Geronimo, TX 78155

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 194 Days on market

Built 2001 0.52 ac lot $103/sqft · 8% above area Est $144k · 8% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious half acre

Tags

• SPACIOUS HALF ACRE
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GENEROUS HALF ACRE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.7% in Geronimo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,000
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 7.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
146 Tejas Trl	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (-2%)	5mo	$188,000	$127	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,684
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,346
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,609 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,284/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $155,000 Pending 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $155,000 Active Option 193 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active Option 192 DOM
4. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Option 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

5. 2026-04-14
   status Back on Market 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

6. 2026-04-06
   historical Active Option 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

7. 2026-03-31
   status Back on Market 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

8. 2026-03-20
   historical Active Option 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

9. 2026-03-10
   price $155,000 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

10. 2026-02-06
    price $159,900 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

11. 2026-01-07
    price $165,000 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

12. 2025-11-20
    listed $175,000 New 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    Welcome to your serene country retreat, a beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a spacious half acre parcel. This property combines the comfort of modern living with the freedom of privacy and acreage. As you step in, you're greeted by bright open concept living that flows seamlessly into the dining and onto the kitchen perfect for gatherings, entertaining or just relaxing! the primary suite Is oversized and features a walk-in closet separate tub and shower in the primary bath. Outside the generous half acre yard provides endless possibilities for gardening entertaining or simply enjoying the quiet country setting! A must see!!!

13. 2009-06-04
    soldstatus
14. 2009-02-28
    historical
15. 2008-01-28
    listed $79,900
16. 2006-11-08
    soldstatus
17. 2006-05-19
    listed $43,200
18. 2002-02-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,284 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,284
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$32
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8
• After-tax cash flow: $2,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+258.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $155,000 LERA
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $159,900 LERA
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $165,000 LERA
• 2025-11-20 Listed $175,000 LERA
• 2009-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2008-01-28 Listed $79,900 LERA
• 2006-11-08 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2006-05-19 Listed $43,200 LERA
• 2002-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,284 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.