158 Clipper Ln #158 · Modesto, CA 95356

$99,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $115k · 14% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super clean two bedroom 2 bath unit with large yard. Refrigerator, washer & dryer remain. Appliance nearly two yr. old. Roof about 1.5 yr. old. Separate formal dining. Very large master closet with sunken tub. Just a stylish unit and available now. Hurry on of the nicest listed.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Bright living room
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is not land-leased (land lease Y/N: No)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; Attached covered parking and off-street spaces; Guest parking available
• Security: No specific security systems listed
• Utilities: Individual electric and gas meters; 220V in kitchen and laundry; Public sewer; Public water via water district; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 1984
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof; Skirting: vinyl, wood or other; Manufacturer: Fleetwood Homes (Sandalwood model)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Carport awning and porch awning; Porch; Manual sprinklers; Front and back landscaping; irregular shaped site; Shed(s) / storage area

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range and oven; Range hood; Laminate and synthetic counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3rd bedroom/workspace/office); Includes a master bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub/shower over and low-flow toilets
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central cooling and ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted great room; Porch with steps, railing and carpeting; Storage area/shed; Window coverings and screens; windows caulked and weather-stripped; Updated/remodeled and original condition elements; Pets allowed with size and number limits; service animals OK
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with electric hook-up; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $100k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $96,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.55%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Clipper Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+1%)	2mo	$129,000	$111	89
4125 Mchenry Ave #43	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	3mo	$65,000	$58	74
165 Clipper Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	12mo	$105,000	$88	73
4125 Mchenry Ave #134	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	2mo	$115,000	$105	70
4125 Mchenry Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	7mo	$135,000	$121	70
4125 Mchenry Ave #55	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	7mo	$135,000	$121	69
4125 Mchenry Ave #92	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	9mo	$45,000	$40	67
195 Schooner Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,322 (+15%)	4mo	$132,000	$100	66
4125 Mchenry Ave #71	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	9mo	$84,000	$70	65
30 Schooner #30	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	12mo	$117,500	$94	65
93 Schooner Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	3mo	$150,000	$116	65
3955 Coffee Rd #71	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	11mo	$95,000	$73	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $36,436
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $84,141
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95356

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,492/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $918

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Warren Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,825	$2.52	13d	4	0.54mi
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	23d	1	0.60mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	13d	1	0.68mi
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	21d	1	0.78mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	13d	1	0.87mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	21d	1	1.06mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	13d	1	1.06mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	13d	10	1.15mi
204 Emerson Ave Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1252	$2,150	$1.72	23d	1	1.21mi
3701 Colonial Dr #154 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	978	$1,950	$1.99	13d	1	1.21mi
2700 Macdougal St #12 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$1,625	$1.89	21d	1	1.27mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	13d	10	1.30mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	13d	1	1.40mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,725	$2.05	13d	1	1.47mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	13d	1	1.49mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	13d	2	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,500 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 16 DOM
17. 2005-03-28
    soldstatus $47,000 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Super clean two bedroom 2 bath unit with large yard. Refrigerator, washer & dryer remain. Appliance nearly two yr. old. Roof about 1.5 yr. old. Separate formal dining. Very large master closet with sunken tub. Just a stylish unit and available now. Hurry on of the nicest listed.

18. 2005-02-24
    historical 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Super clean two bedroom 2 bath unit with large yard. Refrigerator, washer & dryer remain. Appliance nearly two yr. old. Roof about 1.5 yr. old. Separate formal dining. Very large master closet with sunken tub. Just a stylish unit and available now. Hurry on of the nicest listed.

19. 2004-09-01
    listed $49,000 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Super clean two bedroom 2 bath unit with large yard. Refrigerator, washer & dryer remain. Appliance nearly two yr. old. Roof about 1.5 yr. old. Separate formal dining. Very large master closet with sunken tub. Just a stylish unit and available now. Hurry on of the nicest listed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,492
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $10,033
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,408
• After-tax cash flow: $8,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,233
• Household income: $96,886
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Pacific Islander 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.73%
• Current HPI: 270.6957
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2005-03-28 Sold (MLS) $47,000 MLSListings
• 2005-02-24 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2004-09-01 Listed $49,000 MLSListings