206 Marilyn Ave · Mattydale, NY 13212

$219,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1950 8,330 sqft lot Est $234k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This updated home is adorable. The open layout, updated kitchen, and bathroom are crisp and clean. The bedrooms are nice size and living area is perfect with large windows on two sizes for natural light. The refinished hard wood floors are beautiful both in color and charm. The eat in kitchen is updated with white cabinetry. The fresh paint and new carpet add to its move in ready condition. The yard is fenced in, with large deck with stairs to both sides.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Fenced yard
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FENCED YARD
• LARGE DECK
• REFINISHED HARD WOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot with 70 x 119 dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Sliding glass doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.4% in Mattydale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#360 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $215,715 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Circle Rd	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,284 (+2%)	4mo	$183,000	$143	80
305 Hyland Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,346 (+7%)	2mo	$215,000	$160	78
216 Crestwood Dr	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+7%)	6mo	$110,000	$82	76
7197 Willow Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,304 (+4%)	9mo	$242,500	$186	72
202 Hyland Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,424 (+13%)	6mo	$196,000	$138	70
201 Orchard Dr W	0.27mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,185 (-6%)	3mo	$240,405	$203	68
108 Dolores Ter S	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,352 (+7%)	4mo	$252,500	$187	67
114 Lynn Dr	0.28mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-9%)	1mo	$246,000	$214	67
115 Legion Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (+8%)	10mo	$270,000	$198	56
215 Orchard Dr W	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+12%)	6mo	$255,000	$181	52
122 Crystal Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,186 (-6%)	9mo	$237,000	$200	51
104 Sand Rd	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (-9%)	8mo	$195,000	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,598
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,746
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13212

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$412 /mo · $4,945/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $262	+0% $200	+5% $139	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $108	+0% $200	+5% $293	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $256	base $200	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Hyland Dr Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1260	$2,400	$1.90	14d	1	0.15mi
2802 Lemoyne Ave Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	988	$1,700	$1.72	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    remarks 459-char remark
15. 2026-05-30
    listed $219,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,945 · $412/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,945 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$4,945
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$1,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$251
• After-tax cash flow: $2,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liverpool Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617520
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,134
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3134
• State rank: #381 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattydale

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #6130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,155
• Population (ZIP): 20,185

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.93%
• Current HPI: 317.7322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+15.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $219,000 CNYIS
• 2025-06-24 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-06-02 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $170,000 CNYIS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $140,000 CNYIS
• 2025-06-02 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $189,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,945 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.