116 S Middle Ln · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Other · 40 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2024 palm harbor mobile home 3 bed 2 bath, metal roof, fully finished walls with texture, no wallpaper, all wood cabinets, 2 car parking, sitting on a mobile home community with huge pool, park, playground, canopy for private events. Cypress Grove medallion community. Perfect for first time home owner or investment. Schliterbahn 15 minutes away, minutes away from downtown new braunfels, restaurant, shopping.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Fully finished walls
• Huge pool

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• FULLY FINISHED WALLS
• ALL WOOD CABINETS
• HUGE POOL
• CANOPY FOR PRIVATE EVENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.35%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $33,739
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $80,501
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,001	-5% $962	+0% $922	+5% $882	+10% $842
Rent	-10% $750	-5% $836	+0% $922	+5% $1,008	+10% $1,093
Rate	-1.0pp $980	-0.5pp $951	base $922	+0.5pp $892	+1.0pp $862

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Cielo Vis Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2112	$2,400	$1.14	16d	1	0.52mi
634 Flatrock Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,400	$1.92	45d	1	0.59mi
2488 Waterfront Park Dr Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2134	$3,250	$1.52	21d	1	0.76mi
446 W Overlook Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,825	$1.31	45d	1	0.77mi
1219 Lakeside Dr E Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	2.0	1216	$2,180	$1.79	6d	1	0.78mi
324 Ridgerock Dr Unit 1 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	25d	1	0.78mi
507 Scenic Run Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	45d	1	0.91mi
1104 Blueridge Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	45d	1	1.04mi
532 Grandview Bnd Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,450	$1.08	22d	1	1.05mi
1288 Canyon Springs Dr Unit 1351234P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$4,129	$2.68	16d	1	1.06mi
612 Mockingbird Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,950	$1.37	12d	1	1.11mi
1235 Green Hill Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	1.11mi
1198 Green Hill Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,775	$1.47	6d	1	1.13mi
252 Sir Winston Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,495	$1.16	45d	1	1.13mi
1475 Bonnyview Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	25d	1	1.13mi
1618 Valley Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,700	$1.29	19d	1	1.17mi
1618 Valley Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,700	$1.29	45d	1	1.17mi
4348 Morningside Way Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,550	$1.33	22d	1	1.19mi
1569 Comfort Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	19d	1	1.19mi
1569 Comfort Unit Na Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	16d	1	1.19mi
705 Firefly Dr Unit 1365728P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,080	$2.24	0d	1	1.19mi
2676 Woodcrest Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,100	$1.78	45d	1	1.30mi
662 Hillclimb Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.5	1345	$1,950	$1.45	45d	1	1.31mi
1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	25d	1	1.32mi
1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,995	$1.36	45d	1	1.32mi
520 Lake Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	3.0	1606	$2,900	$1.81	0d	1	1.34mi
1392 Hillcrest Frst Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$4,000	$1.95	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $115,000 Active 411-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $9,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,356
• After-tax cash flow: $8,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $115,000 FSBO.com