8139 Cobblestone Dr · Fort Pierce, FL 34945

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Townhouse · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,200 sqft lot 1-car garage $193/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $193 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weatherbee Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 672 students, 90% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 59% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,575 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,990
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -5.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8139 Cobblestone Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	1mo	$274,000	$187	99
8144 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	0mo	$299,990	$205	98
8140 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	0mo	$289,990	$198	98
8135 Cobblestone Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	2mo	$309,990	$212	98
8136 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	0mo	$289,985	$198	98
8132 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	0mo	$289,990	$198	98
8128 Cobblestone Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,463 (0%)	1mo	$289,990	$198	98
8112 Cobblestone Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,464 (+0%)	4mo	$294,990	$201	94
8120 Cobblestone Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,464 (+0%)	5mo	$314,990	$215	94
8116 Cobblestone Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,464 (+0%)	5mo	$294,990	$201	94
8108 Cobblestone Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,464 (+0%)	5mo	$303,660	$207	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-68,979
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-86,663
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active
• Months of supply: 11.5 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,990 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 118 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34945

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$193
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,001

Max offer price $235,575

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-169	-5% $-253	+0% $-336	+5% $-420	+10% $-503
Rent	-10% $-540	-5% $-438	+0% $-336	+5% $-235	+10% $-133
Rate	-1.0pp $-188	-0.5pp $-261	base $-336	+0.5pp $-413	+1.0pp $-491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9511 Potomac Dr Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,575	$1.41	72d	1	0.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (call for details)
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $193 covering common areasSidewalks in the communityAssociation present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerThree-phase electricCable availableWater availableSewer available
• Home design: TownhouseNew construction by D.R. Horton2 storiesFaces southeast
• Construction: CBS constructionComposition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: No waterfront; waterfront features none

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateWoodOther
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom1 bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerWalk-in closetsBlinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $279,990 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $279,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $279,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $279,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $279,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-25
   days on market $279,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-23
   days on market $279,990 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,990 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,990 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-14
    days on market $279,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-10
    days on market $279,990 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 13 DOM
18. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 12 DOM
19. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 9 DOM
20. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 8 DOM
21. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 7 DOM
22. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 6 DOM
23. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 5 DOM
24. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,350/yr (+$112/mo · 138.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$6,593
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,472
• − Management: −$2,472
• − HOA: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$9,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,168
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,315–$21,945 screening

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and cleaning the gutters would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Weatherbee Elementary School F FL #1,797/2,144 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Dan Mccarty Middle School F FL #542/571 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Fort Pierce Central High School F FL #441/667 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Fort Pierce

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: St. Lucie · 338,016 people
• City population: 78,556
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,214
• Household income: $72,941
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 18% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.85%
• Current HPI: 402.2457
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (call for details)
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $193 covering common areasSidewalks in the communityAssociation present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerThree-phase electricCable availableWater availableSewer available
• Home design: TownhouseNew construction by D.R. Horton2 storiesFaces southeast
• Construction: CBS constructionComposition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: No waterfront; waterfront features none

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateWoodOther
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom1 bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerWalk-in closetsBlinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $279,990 Beaches MLS