111 Deer Xing Xing · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18451

$359,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 0.68 ac lot $66/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PAUPACK GARDENS ON LAKE WALLENPAUPACK WITH BOAT SLIP INCLUDED! Welcome to your own private cabin in the woods! This charming cabin is in a small private lake community located on Lake Wallenpaupack, complete with your own boat slip at the Paupack Gardens Association area, which is the perfect location for boating, swimming, picnicking, and enjoying breathtaking sunsets. This cabin features a cozy kitchen, Spacious Dining - Living Room combo with floor to ceiling wood burning Blue Stone fireplace, 2 - bedrooms plus an office/sleeping area and a full bath. This home offers a T & G interior, hardwood floors and original solid wood doors and windows with the original hardware. Enjoy evenin

Key facts

• Private cabin
• Lake community
• Boat slip included

Tags

• BOAT SLIP INCLUDED
• PRIVATE CABIN
• LAKE COMMUNITY
• SCREENED PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ORIGINAL SOLID WOOD DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.68 acres with mixed/irregular dimensions; Lot features: backyard, wooded, level, interior lot; Road is private and maintained via a road maintenance agreement; Water body: Lake Wallenpaupack; Other equipment: fuel tank(s)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (includes water); Association amenities: beach access, beach rights, powered boats allowed; Subdivision: Paupack Gardens; Community features: lake access, fishing

Exterior

• Parking: 6 total parking spaces; Open, off-street gravel parking on site
• Utilities: 100 Amp electric service; Electricity, water, and sewer connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Cabin / single-family house; One level; Updated / remodeled; Has a view; Located on a private road
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Asphalt roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built/converted as a house/cabin
• Exterior features: Private yard; Built-in barbecue; Boat slip; Shed(s); Deck, screened porch, side porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing range / electric oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane and wood heating options; Wall furnace / space heater; Fireplace heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Wood-framed windows; Stone wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups (washer hookup, electric dryer hookup); Washer/Dryer included; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (57.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (63.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (63.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $131,752 (63.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.92%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 22.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-44,526
• Equity at exit: $147,681

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-37,314
• Equity at exit: $217,153

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18451

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 22.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$66
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-1,169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,797

Max offer price $153,450

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $66 · $792/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 695-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $359,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,480 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,206/yr (+$184/mo · 173.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − HOA: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$21,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,092
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 530

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Danish 5% Lithuanian 4% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Current HPI: 261.6564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $359,900 PWMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,274 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.