639 N 38th St · Belleville, IL 62226

$137,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1956 9,148 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There is a classic charm with a touch of modernness to this ranch style home you just have to see. Upon entering you find the massive living room with double windows to let the nature lighting shine throughout the room. Adjacent to there are 2 generously sized bedrooms with newer carpeting. The full bathroom has been completely updated from the vanity to the tub/shower insert. The kitchen boast with plenty of cabinets and counter space to whip up your favorite recipes and all appliances to stay with the home. Adjoining is the dining area large enough for your holiday gatherings and beyond that is the fully screened-in 3 season room to enjoy those quiet afternoons. Want a fenced in backyard, we have it for you. There is a 1 car over sized attached garage with a separate laundry area.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Newer roof
• New kitchen floors

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• SCREEN PORCH
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW KITCHEN FLOORS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-220/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,340 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,968
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
652 N 39th St	0.08mi	2/1.0	984 (-0%)	4mo	$64,000	$65	88
624 Royal Heights Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	960 (-3%)	3mo	$30,000	$31	84
640 Devonshire Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-3%)	0mo	$80,000	$83	79
435 N 38th St	0.34mi	2/1.0	997 (+1%)	1mo	$50,000	$50	78
3916 Shirley Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	939 (-5%)	1mo	$125,000	$133	73
14 N 41st St	0.52mi	2/1.0	986 (-0%)	4mo	$133,000	$135	68
120 N 46th St	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,028 (+4%)	0mo	$40,000	$39	64
3805 Little Flower Ln	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-13%)	0mo	$134,900	$156	63
439 N 39th St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-13%)	1mo	$120,000	$139	58
301 N 37th St	0.47mi	2/1.5	1,090 (+10%)	3mo	$139,900	$128	57
14 Lillian Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (-6%)	3mo	$79,900	$86	51
1108 N 39th St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+14%)	4mo	$79,900	$71	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-21,417
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,896
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62226

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,322/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,227

Max offer price $133,764

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
654 N 39th St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,400	$1.42	17d	1	0.09mi
213 Columbus Dr Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,650	$1.59	23d	1	0.38mi
1000 Royal Heights Rd Belleville, IL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,345	$1.22	23d	1	0.41mi
54 Ben Louis Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,145	$1.27	23d	1	0.54mi
4516 W Main St Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	607	$850	$1.40	23d	1	0.63mi
18 S 44th St Belleville, IL	1.0	1.0	550	$700	$1.27	14d	1	0.63mi
18 S 44th St Belleville, IL	1.0	1.0	550	$700	$1.27	3d	1	0.63mi
56 Friendly Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	23d	1	0.72mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 232-B Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	23d	1	0.95mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 228-P Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$970	$1.04	23d	1	0.95mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 228-G Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	4d	1	0.96mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit C-05 Belleville, IL	1.0	1.0	612	$795	$1.30	3d	1	0.96mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 219-U Belleville, IL	1.0	1.0	612	$730	$1.19	23d	1	0.96mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit G-10 Belleville, IL	1.0	1.0	612	$795	$1.30	23d	1	0.96mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 232-Q Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	17d	1	0.96mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 236-M Belleville, IL	1.0	1.0	612	$730	$1.19	3d	1	0.96mi
5784 Brett Michael Ln Belleville, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,195	$1.49	7d	7	1.09mi
31 S 27th St Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$915	$0.92	23d	1	1.19mi
6105 W Washington St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.5	1120	$1,575	$1.41	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-04-21
   soldstatus $140,000
2. 2025-03-21
   status Pending
3. 2025-03-18
   listed $137,000 Active
4. 2020-06-25
   soldstatus $58,000
5. 2020-06-24
   soldstatus Closed 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   There is a classic charm with a touch of modernness to this ranch style home you just have to see. Upon entering you find the massive living room with double windows to let the nature lighting shine throughout the room. Adjacent to there are 2 generously sized bedrooms with newer carpeting. The full bathroom has been completely updated from the vanity to the tub/shower insert. The kitchen boast with plenty of cabinets and counter space to whip up your favorite recipes and all appliances to stay with the home. Adjoining is the dining area large enough for your holiday gatherings and beyond that is the fully screened-in 3 season room to enjoy those quiet afternoons. Want a fenced in backyard, we have it for you. There is a 1 car over sized attached garage with a separate laundry area.

6. 2020-05-22
   historical Active Under Contract 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   There is a classic charm with a touch of modernness to this ranch style home you just have to see. Upon entering you find the massive living room with double windows to let the nature lighting shine throughout the room. Adjacent to there are 2 generously sized bedrooms with newer carpeting. The full bathroom has been completely updated from the vanity to the tub/shower insert. The kitchen boast with plenty of cabinets and counter space to whip up your favorite recipes and all appliances to stay with the home. Adjoining is the dining area large enough for your holiday gatherings and beyond that is the fully screened-in 3 season room to enjoy those quiet afternoons. Want a fenced in backyard, we have it for you. There is a 1 car over sized attached garage with a separate laundry area.

7. 2020-05-16
   listed $58,000 Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   There is a classic charm with a touch of modernness to this ranch style home you just have to see. Upon entering you find the massive living room with double windows to let the nature lighting shine throughout the room. Adjacent to there are 2 generously sized bedrooms with newer carpeting. The full bathroom has been completely updated from the vanity to the tub/shower insert. The kitchen boast with plenty of cabinets and counter space to whip up your favorite recipes and all appliances to stay with the home. Adjoining is the dining area large enough for your holiday gatherings and beyond that is the fully screened-in 3 season room to enjoy those quiet afternoons. Want a fenced in backyard, we have it for you. There is a 1 car over sized attached garage with a separate laundry area.

8. 2017-03-30
   soldstatus Closed 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   This homes has lots of potential. Home's a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage ranch home with a fenced yard with a shed. Homes has wood floors that need a little TLC. Seller is selling property as-is. Property will not last long, Call today!

9. 2017-03-20
   status Pending 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   This homes has lots of potential. Home's a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage ranch home with a fenced yard with a shed. Homes has wood floors that need a little TLC. Seller is selling property as-is. Property will not last long, Call today!

10. 2017-02-15
    historical Option 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This homes has lots of potential. Home's a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage ranch home with a fenced yard with a shed. Homes has wood floors that need a little TLC. Seller is selling property as-is. Property will not last long, Call today!

11. 2017-01-11
    listed $54,900 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This homes has lots of potential. Home's a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car garage ranch home with a fenced yard with a shed. Homes has wood floors that need a little TLC. Seller is selling property as-is. Property will not last long, Call today!

12. 1996-05-01
    soldstatus $51,000
13. 1996-05-01
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,322 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,716 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$394/yr (+$33/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$2,322
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable loss: −$2,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$609
• After-tax cash flow: $389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2604

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleville, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,255
• Household income: $70,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.57%
• Current HPI: 133.9028
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+174.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Listed $137,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-24 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-22 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-16 Listed $58,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-15 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-11 Listed $54,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1996-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,322 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.