811 Ogden St #813 · Jasper, TX 75951

$119,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · Condo public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1947

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly Renovated & Spacious Duplex – Perfect for House Hacking or Investment! This turnkey duplex is a fantastic opportunity! Each of the two units features two generous bedrooms and a full bathroom with modern finishes throughout. Live in one side and rent out the other to help cover your own living expenses — making homeownership more affordable while you build equity. Or rent both sides. Separate entrances keep the units nicely independent. Recent renovations mean low maintenance and high appeal to quality tenants. The spacious layouts work well for families, professionals, or roommates. Excellent location near schools, shopping, and medical facilities ensures strong rental demand and easy tenant retention. Whichever direction you decide, this duplex offers flexibility and real long-term value. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1947
• Listed 157 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.66%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,867
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $35,417
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $500/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $913

Max offer price $119,999

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
816 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1270	$1,095	$0.86	13d	1	0.06mi
469 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	13d	1	0.27mi
509 N Peachtree St Jasper, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,000	$1.23	13d	1	0.33mi
209 Cavin St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1418	$1,300	$0.92	19d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,999 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,999 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,999 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,999 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,999 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,999 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,999 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,999 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,999 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,999 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,999 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,999 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,999 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,999 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,999 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,999 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    price $119,999 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Freshly Renovated & Spacious Duplex – Perfect for House Hacking or Investment! This turnkey duplex is a fantastic opportunity! Each of the two units features two generous bedrooms and a full bathroom with modern finishes throughout. Live in one side and rent out the other to help cover your own living expenses — making homeownership more affordable while you build equity. Or rent both sides. Separate entrances keep the units nicely independent. Recent renovations mean low maintenance and high appeal to quality tenants. The spacious layouts work well for families, professionals, or roommates. Excellent location near schools, shopping, and medical facilities ensures strong rental demand and easy tenant retention. Whichever direction you decide, this duplex offers flexibility and real long-term value. Don't miss out!

18. 2026-01-12
    listed $129,999 Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Freshly Renovated & Spacious Duplex – Perfect for House Hacking or Investment! This turnkey duplex is a fantastic opportunity! Each of the two units features two generous bedrooms and a full bathroom with modern finishes throughout. Live in one side and rent out the other to help cover your own living expenses — making homeownership more affordable while you build equity. Or rent both sides. Separate entrances keep the units nicely independent. Recent renovations mean low maintenance and high appeal to quality tenants. The spacious layouts work well for families, professionals, or roommates. Excellent location near schools, shopping, and medical facilities ensures strong rental demand and easy tenant retention. Whichever direction you decide, this duplex offers flexibility and real long-term value. Don't miss out!

19. 2023-07-18
    soldstatus
20. 2023-07-13
    soldstatus Closed 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Check out this vacant income producing property! This former duplex is just waiting to be brought to it's full earning potential! 4b/2b and a garage out back. Featuring hardwood flooring and all new electrical wiring and plumbing. Make your investing dreams a reality! There are also other duplexes/properties for sale by same owner that may be sold together.

21. 2023-06-15
    listed $45,000 Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Check out this vacant income producing property! This former duplex is just waiting to be brought to it's full earning potential! 4b/2b and a garage out back. Featuring hardwood flooring and all new electrical wiring and plumbing. Make your investing dreams a reality! There are also other duplexes/properties for sale by same owner that may be sold together.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,696/yr (+$141/mo · 338.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$500
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$664
• After-tax cash flow: $3,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $119,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $129,999 HARMLS
• 2023-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-13 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2023-06-15 Listed $45,000 BBOR

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $500 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.