29905 Elm Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1994 0.62 ac lot $219/sqft · 21% above area Est $260k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Priced BELOW Appraised value. You have found the one YOUR HEART DESIRES ! This adorable and quaint property which sits on almost 3/4 of an acre. Home has a well and a septic, with NO HOA and NO MUD TAX, and a low 1.58 Tax Rate. This Beautiful home, 3 bedrooms, plus an office or could be used as a 4th bedroom, 2 bathrooms, a bright living space with adjoining kitchen and dining room. This home sits on a gorgeous lot with the back yard, fully fenced, with a playground area, a very LARGE concrete pad. There is a wonderful front porch with porch swing to enjoy those peaceful afternoons. There are a lot of kitchen cabinets, including a lazy Susan in bottom corner kitchen cabinet, and new butcher

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Has a view
• Construction: Cement siding; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1994
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard (partial); Paved driveway; Corner lot; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Kitchen area on first floor (17.5 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14.7 x 13.8); Bedroom on first floor (11.7 x 10.11); Bedroom on first floor (12.3 x 10.5); Additional bedroom possible (total up to 4); Office on first floor (11.9 x 10.9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on first floor (7.8 x 11.5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom R Ellisor El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 492 students, 40% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 9900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,295 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,832
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -3.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28835 Champion Oaks Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,048 (-8%)	18mo	$205,000	$196	43
29807 Pacific Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	972 (-15%)	21mo	$129,000	$133	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $121,884
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $356,986
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,983/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $224,448

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-74	+0% $-145	+5% $-215	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-221	+0% $-145	+5% $-69	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-81	base $-145	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29828 Farm to Market Road 2978 #1 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,269	$1.21	44d	1	0.89mi
30006 Farm to Market Road 2978 Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,766	$1.62	44d	1	0.94mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2162 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,883	$1.60	6d	1	0.98mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,875	$1.59	3d	1	0.98mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30017 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,907	$1.62	11d	1	1.08mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2047 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,918	$1.63	12d	1	1.09mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,767	$1.50	4d	49	1.11mi
30685 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,748	$1.49	2d	45	1.35mi
10851 W Montfair Blvd The Woodlands, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,339	$2.19	13d	45	1.47mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Pending 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Pending 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Pending 35 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Pending 34 DOM
6. 2026-05-10
   listed $2,500
7. 2026-04-27
   historical
8. 2026-04-27
   listed $250,000 Active 828-char remark
9. 2026-04-21
   price $265,000
10. 2026-03-16
    listed $285,000 Active
11. 2021-08-09
    soldstatus
12. 2019-12-01
    historical
13. 2019-11-07
    listed $184,900 Active
14. 2013-08-02
    soldstatus
15. 2013-07-26
    soldstatus Sold
16. 2013-07-23
    status Pending
17. 2013-07-18
    status Option Pending
18. 2013-07-02
    listed $140,600 Active
19. 2000-07-28
    soldstatus
20. 1994-04-19
    soldstatus
21. 1993-12-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,592/yr (+$133/mo · 53.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,983
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-11-07 Listed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2013-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-07-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-02 Listed $140,600 HARMLS
• 2000-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,983 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.