2515 Birdell Ct · Fort Worth, TX 76105

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,397 sqft · Land · 138 Days on market

Built 2025 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-lot property is ready to be changed from commercial to residential and to have 3 homes built. 3 New water meters are added. There is a lot of new construction going on in the area.

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Soft-close cabinetry
• Boise floor plan

Tags

• BOISE FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maude I Logan El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 309 students, 94% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 73% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,831/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 884% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,106 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $119,844
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $372,251
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76105

• Home prices YoY: 14.2%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $209,316

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5328 Carol Ave Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1230	$2,100	$1.71	44d	1	0.07mi
5336 Cottey St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,699	$1.63	44d	1	0.24mi
3201 Mount Horum Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,699	$1.63	6d	1	0.30mi
2128 R. W. Bivens Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,615	$1.55	14d	1	0.32mi
5636 Lester Granger Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	24d	1	0.42mi
1810 Wiseman Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	44d	1	0.51mi
3700 Radford Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,650	$1.47	13d	1	0.64mi
3700 Radford Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,650	$1.47	24d	1	0.64mi
4929 Willie St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,650	$1.19	4d	1	0.65mi
2312 Cass St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	14d	1	0.66mi
1736 Ransom Ter Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,850	$1.40	15d	1	0.82mi
5055 Virgil St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,650	$1.52	24d	1	0.83mi
3865 Stalcup Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,814	$1.66	6d	1	0.89mi
2500 S Edgewood Ter Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1123	$1,895	$1.69	2d	34	0.96mi
1007 Tierney Rd Unit 1007 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,250	$0.78	44d	1	1.00mi
4312 Lorin Ave Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1230	$2,000	$1.63	44d	1	1.11mi
5818 Grayson St Unit 5818 Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	19d	1	1.13mi
5820 Grayson St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1417	$1,895	$1.34	44d	1	1.14mi
5913 Montague St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,549	$1.42	14d	1	1.20mi
4508 Wiman Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,580	$1.51	6d	1	1.26mi
5908 Oakdale Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,475	$1.35	6d	1	1.37mi
6029 Plants Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	1.43mi
4217 Wilhelm St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	44d	1	1.44mi
5712 Whittlesey Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	44d	1	1.45mi
5200 E Lancaster Ave Fort Worth, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,575	$1.97	3d	14	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $265,000
3. 2026-03-31
   status Active
4. 2025-12-22
   status Pending
5. 2025-08-27
   listed $267,000 Active
6. 2025-02-14
   soldstatus Closed 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   This 3-lot property is ready to be changed from commercial to residential and to have 3 homes built. 3 New water meters are added. There is a lot of new construction going on in the area.

7. 2024-12-11
   status Pending 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   This 3-lot property is ready to be changed from commercial to residential and to have 3 homes built. 3 New water meters are added. There is a lot of new construction going on in the area.

8. 2024-12-10
   listed $159,000 Active 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   This 3-lot property is ready to be changed from commercial to residential and to have 3 homes built. 3 New water meters are added. There is a lot of new construction going on in the area.

9. 2024-07-04
   price $125,000
10. 2024-07-04
    status Active
11. 2024-03-15
    status Active
12. 2024-02-20
    price $107,000
13. 2024-02-20
    price $150,000
14. 2024-02-20
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$9,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Worth ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,109
• Composite: 19.61/100
• National rank: #8753
• State rank: #742 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,228
• Household income: $45,770
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Black 29% Two or more races 24% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.33%
• Current HPI: 219.2657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+657.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $267,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-12-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-12-10 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-04 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-03-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $107,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-20 Listed $35,000 NTREIS