2301 Arrowhead Dr · Springfield, IL 62702

$198,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1962 0.26 ac lot $54/sqft · 28% below area Est $274k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A well maintained, one owner home offering space and charm. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features a sunroom on the back of the house. The finished basement is complete with a 2nd kitchen, full bath, and laundry. Ideal for extended living or multi-generations to live together. It sits on a corner lot which provides ample parking along with a 2.5 car detached garage. Located in Indian Hills subdivision, close to shopping, schools, and dining. It's a great family home!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1962; Multiple levels including main, upper, lower and finished full basement
• Construction: No (not new construction)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Corner lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (including main-level primary and additional bedrooms on upper, lower and basement levels)
• Flooring: Hardwood in several main-level bedrooms; Carpet in some main-level rooms and basement family room; Vinyl in kitchen and some other rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $166,185 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,966
• List price: $198,500
• Delta: -27.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2617 Delaware Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	3,776 (+3%)	12mo	$253,000	$67	61
2125 Shabbona Dr	0.51mi	4/4.0	3,424 (-7%)	10mo	$254,900	$74	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-40,291
• Equity at exit: $29,597

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,058
• Equity at exit: $17,163

Cash invested: $55,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62702

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,041
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,845/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,933

Max offer price $166,185

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-127	+0% $-183	+5% $-239	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-250	+0% $-183	+5% $-116	+10% $-48
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-132	base $-183	+0.5pp $-234	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,625
• Closing costs: $5,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 471-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $198,500 Active 471-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   historical $198,500 471-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,845 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,845 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,845
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − Depreciation: −$5,775
• Taxable loss: −$5,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,338
• After-tax cash flow: $-857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 31,033
• Household income: $51,136
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.98%
• Current HPI: 149.1926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.95%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $198,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $198,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,845 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.