149565 Del Rey · Big River, CA 92242

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1978 0.51 ac lot $100/sqft · 9% below area Est $138k · 9% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lovely home is a spacious double wide manufactured home. The roof has been repaired. The landscaping is charming. New toilets have been installed. The Home is located a mile from the Park that has 2 launch ramps at the Colorado River, park benches, BBQ's, volleyball, Kids Gym. Home is on leased land with the Colorado River Indian Tribe and therefore is CASH ONLY! Big River Development lease expires in 2029. Lease is currently $90/year. Buyer and agent to do due diligence. All buyers to pass a background check with Big River Development ASAP.

Key facts

• Repaired roof
• New toilets
• Charming landscaping

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• REPAIRED ROOF
• CHARMING LANDSCAPING
• NEW TOILETS
• LOCATED A MILE FROM THE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#327 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.89%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,859
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -9.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7272 Nokomis	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+4%)	20mo	$99,900	$77	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $65,881
• Equity at exit: $88,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $176,241
• Equity at exit: $170,513

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92242

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $361	+0% $317	+5% $274	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $199	-5% $258	+0% $317	+5% $377	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $349	base $317	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 186 DOM
17. 2025-11-25
    listed $125,000 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    This lovely home is a spacious double wide manufactured home. The roof has been repaired. The landscaping is charming. New toilets have been installed. The Home is located a mile from the Park that has 2 launch ramps at the Colorado River, park benches, BBQ's, volleyball, Kids Gym. Home is on leased land with the Colorado River Indian Tribe and therefore is CASH ONLY! Big River Development lease expires in 2029. Lease is currently $90/year. Buyer and agent to do due diligence. All buyers to pass a background check with Big River Development ASAP.

18. 1999-12-29
    soldstatus $176,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$464
• After-tax cash flow: $3,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626760
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 23.35/100
• National rank: #13305
• State rank: #1194 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Big River

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #11065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big River, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,203

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.26%
• Current HPI: 183.526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-29.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-25 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 1999-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $176,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $109 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.