3816 S Calle Rambles · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Townhouse public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1997 3,673 sqft lot Est $230k · 9% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy carefree, low maintenance living in this freshly updated townhome in The Springs. Just steps away from the GVR center, this efficient 960 sq. ft. home offers 2 BR, 1.5 BA and 1 car garage. New interior paint and all new luxury vinyl plank floors throughout. Main bedroom has en suite bath. Guest room or optional den, plus powder room. Kitchen has breakfast bar and pantry closet. Low care yards front and back, with covered rear patio. Ideal for full or part-time living, or as an investment property. The nearby GVR Center offers an abundance of amenities, incl. pool, spa, fitness center, social clubs, and clay, glass arts, photography, and computer studios. Plus, access to The Springs' 2

Key facts

• Walking trail
• Covered rear patio
• 25 acre park

Tags

• FRESHLY UPDATED TOWNHOME
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PANTRY CLOSET
• 25 ACRE PARK
• WALKING TRAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: The Springs; HOA fee $48 annually; HOA covers common area maintenance, gated community, and street maintenance; Community amenities include pool, spa, fitness center, recreation center, gated entry, paved streets, sidewalks, park, and walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage with garage door opener; 1 covered parking space
• Security: Wrought iron security door; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Single-story; Faces southeast
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Built-up reflective roof; Built by Roadhaven
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Shrubs; Front sprinklers; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (2 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Double pane windows; Door levers for accessibility; Smoke detectors; Wrought iron security door
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in the garage; In-garage laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $209k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,865 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.80%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3765 S Calle Rambles	0.07mi	2/1.5	960 (0%)	13mo	$230,000	$240	84
3772 S Camino Del Cefiro	0.11mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	13mo	$230,000	$240	84
3858 S Camino Del Golfista	0.12mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	2mo	$220,000	$255	76
3747 S Paseo De Los Nardos	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	2mo	$219,000	$198	70
3956 S Calle Viva	0.19mi	2/2.0	852 (-11%)	4mo	$207,000	$243	69
3733 S Avenida De Encino	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,047 (+9%)	14mo	$230,000	$220	69
3709 S Camino Del Cefiro	0.18mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	7mo	$210,000	$243	69
3665 S Avenida de Encino	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	4mo	$255,000	$231	65
3717 S Camino Del Cefiro	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,099 (+14%)	4mo	$238,000	$217	64
973 W Camino Erranle	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	15mo	$225,000	$204	61
1236 W Camino Del Pato	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+10%)	2mo	$260,000	$245	60
3672 S Paseo De Los Nardos	0.15mi	2/1.0	864 (-10%)	15mo	$199,900	$231	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,076
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $45,610
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,403/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1230 W Camino del Pato Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,200	$3.02	17d	1	0.42mi
1400 Placita Apache Unit X Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.84mi
2807 S Calle Trafalgar Unit NA Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	966	$1,650	$1.71	24d	1	1.05mi
1098 W Camino Sagasta Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,600	$2.33	24d	1	1.17mi
1430 W Camino Lucientes Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $209,000 Active
15. 2026-05-19
    historical
16. 2026-03-23
    status Active
17. 2026-03-07
    historical Active Contingent
18. 2026-02-24
    status Active
19. 2026-02-18
    historical Active Contingent
20. 2026-01-09
    price $219,000
21. 2025-09-13
    listed $230,000 Active
22. 1996-12-19
    soldstatus $82,166

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,403
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $3,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+154.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $209,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-07 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-18 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $219,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-13 Listed $230,000 MLSSAZ
• 1996-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $82,166 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,403 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.