24795 Shady Oaks Blvd · Magnolia, TX 77316

$239,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 198 Days on market

Built 2005 2.58 ac lot $112/sqft · at area comps Est $250k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. Despite the potential for this home, it is in need of new flooring and some repairs.

Key facts

• 2.58 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 198 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,500
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -4.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24687 Country Oaks Blvd	0.60mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,128 (0%)	3mo	$220,000	$103	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-32,472
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,401
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$408 /mo · $4,900/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,229

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $239,000 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    status Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. Despite the potential for this home, it is in need of new flooring and some repairs.

15. 2026-04-17
    price $240,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. Despite the potential for this home, it is in need of new flooring and some repairs.

16. 2026-04-06
    status Pending 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. Despite the potential for this home, it is in need of new flooring and some repairs.

17. 2026-03-02
    price $225,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. Despite the potential for this home, it is in need of new flooring and some repairs.

18. 2026-02-18
    price $244,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. Despite the potential for this home, it is in need of new flooring and some repairs.

19. 2025-11-21
    listed $199,000 Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. Despite the potential for this home, it is in need of new flooring and some repairs.

20. 2024-12-11
    status Pending, Continue to Show 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Welcome to your 2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. New laminate flooring in living areas and the primary bedroom, fresh carpet in others, and a fresh coat of paint in the interior of the home and all of the exterior has been power washed. Step onto the wood decks and experience more than a home—it's an oasis.

21. 2024-12-11
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Welcome to your 2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. New laminate flooring in living areas and the primary bedroom, fresh carpet in others, and a fresh coat of paint in the interior of the home and all of the exterior has been power washed. Step onto the wood decks and experience more than a home—it's an oasis.

22. 2024-12-06
    soldstatus Sold 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Welcome to your 2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. New laminate flooring in living areas and the primary bedroom, fresh carpet in others, and a fresh coat of paint in the interior of the home and all of the exterior has been power washed. Step onto the wood decks and experience more than a home—it's an oasis.

23. 2024-09-27
    listed $320,000 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Welcome to your 2.58-acre nature haven just minutes from FM-1488! This 5-bed, 3-bath retreat is the perfect blend of convenience and privacy. The kitchen is a chef's delight with a quartz island, huge pantry, and an eat-in breakfast room. Quartz counters grace every surface. The split floor-plan offers a spacious master with a luxe bath featuring a garden tub, separate shower, and giant closet. New laminate flooring in living areas and the primary bedroom, fresh carpet in others, and a fresh coat of paint in the interior of the home and all of the exterior has been power washed. Step onto the wood decks and experience more than a home—it's an oasis.

24. 2024-09-25
    historical
25. 2024-08-08
    price $320,000
26. 2024-06-02
    price $325,000
27. 2024-04-17
    price $330,000
28. 2024-02-27
    price $335,000
29. 2024-02-08
    price $340,000
30. 2023-12-09
    listed $350,000 Active
31. 2023-12-06
    historical
32. 2023-11-30
    listed $350,000 Active
33. 2023-11-29
    historical
34. 2023-11-28
    listed $350,000 Active
35. 2015-11-06
    soldstatus Sold
36. 2015-11-06
    soldstatus
37. 2015-11-04
    status Pending
38. 2015-10-25
    status Option Pending
39. 2015-10-23
    status Active
40. 2015-10-23
    historical
41. 2015-09-17
    price $139,999
42. 2015-07-30
    listed $159,000 Active
43. 2010-03-05
    soldstatus
44. 2010-02-01
    historical
45. 2009-11-24
    listed $72,000
46. 2009-06-19
    historical
47. 2009-03-17
    listed $131,500
48. 2006-04-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,900 · $408/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,900 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$4,900
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$1,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$352
• After-tax cash flow: $2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+82.5% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $244,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-12-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-02 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-17 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-09 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-30 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-28 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2015-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-10-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-09-17 Price Changed $139,999 HARMLS
• 2015-07-30 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2010-03-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-02-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-11-24 Listed $72,000 HARMLS
• 2009-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-03-17 Listed $131,500 HARMLS
• 2006-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,900 · +38.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.