Plan 2969 Plan · San Antonio, TX 78253

$281,995

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,969 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Media niche at loft * Upstairs linen closet * Downstairs primary suite * Expansive great room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious living room * Open floor plan * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Granite kitchen countertops * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Expansive great room
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 58 days

Tags

• UPSTAIRS LINEN CLOSET
• DOWNSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $281,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (2 garage spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Plan 2969)
• Exterior features: Located at 7711 Inca Dove Way, San Antonio, TX 78253

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Plan 2969); Total living area of 2969

🏗️ New construction. The $281,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $306,718.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,367 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,718
• List price: $281,995
• Delta: -8.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7715 Rock Wren Fall	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,708 (-9%)	5mo	$321,665	$119	69
7524 Corral Smt	0.21mi	5/3.0	2,609 (-12%)	0mo	$339,490	$130	68
8015 Cactus Wren Hl	0.23mi	5/3.0	2,708 (-9%)	7mo	$299,138	$110	67
7919 Mariposa Mnr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,708 (-9%)	2mo	$315,618	$117	67
7517 Corral Smt	0.21mi	5/3.0	2,609 (-12%)	3mo	$327,490	$126	66
8022 Kingfisher Lndg	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,719 (-8%)	5mo	$355,000	$131	64
7504 Corral Smt	0.26mi	5/3.0	2,609 (-12%)	4mo	$324,990	$125	63
7502 Cheetah Pass	0.29mi	5/3.0	2,609 (-12%)	6mo	$340,990	$131	59
7522 Cheetah Pass	0.29mi	5/3.0	2,609 (-12%)	7mo	$332,990	$128	58
7923 Bonsai Bay	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,895 (-2%)	6mo	$344,000	$119	56
7919 Bearcat Fld	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,696 (-9%)	1mo	$299,900	$111	51
14383 Palm Rdg	0.62mi	5/3.0	2,581 (-13%)	2mo	$324,860	$126	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-76,932
• Equity at exit: $45,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-119,129
• Equity at exit: $26,519

Cash invested: $85,881 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78253

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$383 /mo · $4,601/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,683

Max offer price $259,913

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-217	+0% $-323	+5% $-429	+10% $-535
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-413	+0% $-323	+5% $-234	+10% $-144
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-245	base $-323	+0.5pp $-403	+1.0pp $-484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,679
• Closing costs: $9,202
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14838 House Wren Fall San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2500	$2,150	$0.86	45d	1	0.19mi
7919 Mariposa Mnr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2708	$2,450	$0.90	3d	1	0.25mi
7404 Cottontail Clf San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$1,950	$0.83	5d	1	0.32mi
7404 Cottontail Clf San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$1,950	$0.83	0d	1	0.32mi
14507 Gecko Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2805	$2,150	$0.77	25d	1	0.45mi
15214 Ohare Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2563	$2,175	$0.85	5d	1	0.54mi
14537 Flatiron Clf San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.5	2501	$2,500	$1.00	16d	1	0.56mi
14374 Elkhorn Crst San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2581	$1,895	$0.73	45d	1	0.65mi
15126 Nettleton Ml Unit Nettleton Ml unit San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2666	$2,500	$0.94	23d	1	1.36mi
7003 Anacua Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1902	$2,495	$1.31	5d	8	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $281,995 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,995 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,995 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,995 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,995 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,995 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,995 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,995 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $281,995 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,995 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,995 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,995 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,995 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,995 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $281,995 463-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $291,995 Active 463-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,181
• − Property taxes: −$4,601
• − Insurance: −$1,534
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − Depreciation: −$8,923
• Taxable loss: −$9,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,237
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like a swimming pool and playground enhancing its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Swimming pool — Attracts buyers and renters
• Both Playground — Attracts families and renters
• Both Nearby entertainment and leisure — Enhances location appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Swimming pool — Attracts buyers and renters ↑
• Both Playground — Attracts families and renters ↑
• Both Nearby entertainment and leisure — Enhances location appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,282
• Household income: $106,373
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1496.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 34% Two or more races 27% Black 9% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.92%
• Current HPI: 199.1827
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B