3229 Tiki Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1972 3,762 sqft lot Est $171k · 30% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tiki Village. NON-FLOOD ZONE. Only $400 a year. Gated. 55 and Older. You OWN THE LAND. Massive front porch 9 feet by 19 feet. This spacious home stands out as one of the community’s largest units at 1344 Sq Feet. Home has an oversized living room, expansive dining area and generously sized kitchen, also features a screened-in side porch and a carport. The hall bathroom features a high-end walk-in jetted bathtub, offering comfort, accessibility, and a spa-like experience. The primary suite includes a beautifully updated shower with a brand-new surround. Utility room with full sized washer and dryer. While the kitchen offers abundant space and storage, it is dated and presents a great o

Key facts

• Own the land
• Non-flood zone
• Massive front porch

Tags

• NON-FLOOD ZONE
• GATED
• OWN THE LAND
• MASSIVE FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED-IN SIDE PORCH
• UPDATED SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Total living area approximately 1,344 square feet; Lot is paved and approximately 0.09 acres (about 350 m²)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Part of Tiki Village HOA (annual fee $400; approximately $33.33/month); Association requires approval; Association fee includes private road; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; Faces south; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Membrane roof
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $120k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.57%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,688
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2115 Waterview Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	7mo	$165,000	$127	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $20,865
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $65,367
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $609/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2814 Jacob Crossing Ln Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1444	$1,995	$1.38	24d	1	0.19mi
3093 Inlet Breeze Way Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1616	$1,895	$1.17	24d	1	0.21mi
3052 Salton St Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,600	$1.50	24d	1	0.25mi
3536 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	24d	1	0.36mi
3600 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,800	$1.11	24d	1	0.39mi
3513 Trask Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,249	$1.25	24d	1	0.40mi
3446 Cincinnati Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,906	$1.57	5d	1	0.44mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	24d	1	0.55mi
3521 Allandale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.60mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,850	$1.35	15d	1	0.63mi
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,673	$1.65	13d	1	0.65mi
2709 Hawk Roost Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,625	$1.49	18d	1	0.68mi
3431 Overland Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,850	$1.50	24d	1	0.75mi
4036 Sunray Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,350	$1.28	24d	1	0.79mi
3549 Westminister Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.83mi
3445 Wiltshire Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	992	$1,450	$1.46	22d	1	0.85mi
3528 Rock Royal Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1052	$1,900	$1.81	24d	1	0.85mi
3612 Springfield Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,450	$1.39	18d	1	0.98mi
3143 Pinon Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,695	$1.64	22d	1	0.99mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	3d	13	1.01mi
3162 Victoria Inlet Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,375	$1.46	5d	1	1.06mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	3d	9	1.07mi
1624 Springdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	5d	1	1.08mi
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	18d	1	1.11mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	20d	1	1.14mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	5d	1	1.15mi
3433 Atlantis Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	1.21mi
3444 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	24d	1	1.24mi
1440 Brixton Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	952	$1,707	$1.79	24d	1	1.25mi
2620 Cheval Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,699	$1.06	5d	1	1.30mi
1351 Whitehall Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,550	$1.44	24d	1	1.33mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	2d	1	1.36mi
3040 Brompton Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$1,950	$1.19	24d	1	1.37mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	1.43mi
3104 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,640	$1.34	24d	1	1.45mi
3054 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,500	$1.54	5d	1	1.45mi
4010 Stratfield Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,035	$1.19	5d	1	1.46mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	5d	1	1.47mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	5d	1	1.49mi
3623 Holiday Lake Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,525	$1.52	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    price $120,000
15. 2026-04-13
    price $125,000
16. 2026-04-10
    price $130,000
17. 2026-04-05
    price $131,000
18. 2026-03-30
    price $133,000
19. 2026-03-20
    price $134,000
20. 2026-02-16
    listed $135,000 Active
21. 1984-05-01
    soldstatus $38,000
22. 1980-03-01
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $609 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 63.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$609
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $6,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+313.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $131,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $133,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $134,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1980-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $609 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.