4433 Espirit Dr · Fort Collins, CO 80524

$224,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · Manufactured public records · 177 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $228k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to the 55+ gated community of Sunflower. This spacious home features two bedrooms and two bathrooms plus an office that could serve as a third bedroom. At 1616 square feet it is the largest floorplan in the neighborhood. The open concept features multiple skylights, and lots of windows throughout, which offer great natural light. Enjoy your evenings relaxing on the extended patio and enjoying the retractable awning. The roof has recently been replaced as well as brand new gutters and blinds. The insulated attached two car garage comes with a ramp, if needed. You'll want to take advantage of all the community offers including: Exercise Room, Entertaining Space, Full Kitchen, Pool Tables, Game Room, and soon to be Pickle Ball Courts. The community fee of $141/month includes snow removal, sewer, storm water, and common area landscaping. Land lease fee is $1007/month.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Private patio
• Double vanities

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LARGE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS
• NEW PLANK FLOORING
• PRIVATE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association maintains common amenities and provides snow removal; Community amenities include clubhouse, tennis courts, hot tub, fitness center, park, and recreation room

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: District water with meter installed; Public sewer; Natural gas available (Xcel); Electricity available; Trash service (Republic)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Not new, previously owned; Accessible features including ramp access, main floor bedroom, main floor bath, stall shower, and main level laundry; Zoned M1
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition roof; Above-grade finished living area
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced; Land lease; Paved streets with curbs, gutters and sidewalks; Street lighting; Asphalt road frontage on a city street; Minimal flood or C rating

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all bedrooms conform)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Skylights; Window coverings; Study
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.6% in Fort Collins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#11 in CO, #1,750 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Timnath Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #249 of 966 statewide, top 27%, 446 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.77%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,856
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4408 Espirit Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (0%)	7mo	$230,000	$142	88
909 Sunchase Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,616 (0%)	14mo	$230,000	$142	84
4465 Espirit Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,561 (-3%)	13mo	$220,000	$141	82
919 Vitala Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,556 (-4%)	14mo	$220,000	$141	76
922 Pleasure Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,448 (-10%)	1mo	$197,900	$137	72
826 Sunchase Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,448 (-10%)	13mo	$205,000	$142	68
648 Brandt Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,504 (-7%)	13mo	$205,000	$136	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,976
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $37,032
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80524

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,736

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $535	-5% $471	+0% $408	+5% $344	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $319	+0% $408	+5% $496	+10% $585
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $465	base $408	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4692 Palamino Ln Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.5	1606	$2,600	$1.62	22d	1	0.41mi
739 Riverbend Dr Unit Shop Fort Collins, CO	1.0	1.0	1200	$1,525	$1.27	24d	1	1.47mi
802 Waterglen Dr Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.5	1285	$2,075	$1.61	24d	2	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    price $224,900
16. 2026-04-15
    price $234,900
17. 2025-12-23
    listed $249,999 Active
18. 2022-04-08
    soldstatus $205,000
19. 2022-04-06
    soldstatus $205,000 Sold 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Welcome home to the 55+ gated community of Sunflower. This spacious home features two bedrooms and two bathrooms plus an office that could serve as a third bedroom. At 1616 square feet it is the largest floorplan in the neighborhood. The open concept features multiple skylights, and lots of windows throughout, which offer great natural light. Enjoy your evenings relaxing on the extended patio and enjoying the retractable awning. The roof has recently been replaced as well as brand new gutters and blinds. The insulated attached two car garage comes with a ramp, if needed. You'll want to take advantage of all the community offers including: Exercise Room, Entertaining Space, Full Kitchen, Pool Tables, Game Room, and soon to be Pickle Ball Courts. The community fee of $141/month includes snow removal, sewer, storm water, and common area landscaping. Land lease fee is $1007/month.

20. 2022-02-24
    historical Active - Backup 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Welcome home to the 55+ gated community of Sunflower. This spacious home features two bedrooms and two bathrooms plus an office that could serve as a third bedroom. At 1616 square feet it is the largest floorplan in the neighborhood. The open concept features multiple skylights, and lots of windows throughout, which offer great natural light. Enjoy your evenings relaxing on the extended patio and enjoying the retractable awning. The roof has recently been replaced as well as brand new gutters and blinds. The insulated attached two car garage comes with a ramp, if needed. You'll want to take advantage of all the community offers including: Exercise Room, Entertaining Space, Full Kitchen, Pool Tables, Game Room, and soon to be Pickle Ball Courts. The community fee of $141/month includes snow removal, sewer, storm water, and common area landscaping. Land lease fee is $1007/month.

21. 2022-02-03
    price $1,100
22. 2021-11-18
    listed $220,000 Active 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Welcome home to the 55+ gated community of Sunflower. This spacious home features two bedrooms and two bathrooms plus an office that could serve as a third bedroom. At 1616 square feet it is the largest floorplan in the neighborhood. The open concept features multiple skylights, and lots of windows throughout, which offer great natural light. Enjoy your evenings relaxing on the extended patio and enjoying the retractable awning. The roof has recently been replaced as well as brand new gutters and blinds. The insulated attached two car garage comes with a ramp, if needed. You'll want to take advantage of all the community offers including: Exercise Room, Entertaining Space, Full Kitchen, Pool Tables, Game Room, and soon to be Pickle Ball Courts. The community fee of $141/month includes snow removal, sewer, storm water, and common area landscaping. Land lease fee is $1007/month.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$54/yr (+$4/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $1,254
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$301
• After-tax cash flow: $4,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Collins

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1750

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Larimer County · 338,255 people
• City population: 202,303
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• Population (ZIP): 40,030
• Household income: $85,035
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1860.0

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -581.67%
• Current HPI: 274.4026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.13%
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $224,900 IRES
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $234,900 IRES
• 2025-12-23 Listed $249,999 IRES
• 2022-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-06 Sold (MLS) $205,000 IRES
• 2022-02-24 Contingent — IRES
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $1,100 RENT.
• 2021-11-18 Listed $220,000 IRES

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,183 · +56.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.