4401 Hughes Ln #167 · Bakersfield, CA 93304

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $128k · 14% under $854/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential at Smoke Tree Estates! This home is ready for its new owner and offers a fantastic opportunity to make it your own. Available for you to view today this 3 bed 2 Bath is a must see!! With a little updating and personal touch, this property can truly shine while enjoying all the incredible community amenities Smoke Tree Estates has to offer. Enjoy resort style living featuring a sparkling pool, indoor hot tub, indoor sauna, fitness studio, clubhouse, billiards room, community library, car wash station, dog park, and even a dog spa for your furry companions! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Affordable living with endless potential in a

Key facts

• Indoor sauna
• Clubhouse
• Indoor hot tub

Tags

• INDOOR HOT TUB
• INDOOR SAUNA
• FITNESS STUDIO
• CLUBHOUSE
• BILLIARDS ROOM
• COMMUNITY LIBRARY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Smokey Tree Lane HOA; HOA fee $854 monthly; Association clubhouse/recreation; Association gym/exercise facility; Association pool; Association sauna

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Sewer; Public water
• Home design: Flat roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Community pool; Gated community; Leased space; Vacant

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Formal living room; Great room; Range/Oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-903/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (9.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,947/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 2587% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,012 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4401 Hughes Ln #57	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$80,000	$56	94
4401 Hughes Ln #153	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	12mo	$130,000	$89	88
4401 Hughes Ln #148	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,532 (+6%)	2mo	$110,000	$72	86
4401 Hughes Ln #33	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$50,000	$35	82
4401 Hughes Ln #50	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$75,000	$52	78
4401 Hughes Ln #135	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-7%)	6mo	$135,000	$101	77
4401 Hughes Ln #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	13mo	$110,000	$85	73
4401 Hughes Ln #162	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$103,500	$83	71
4113 Estate St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$167	70
4401 Hughes Ln #180	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,233 (-14%)	18mo	$110,000	$89	61
3509 Sahara Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$230,000	$160	58
3608 Sahara	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+3%)	6mo	$275,000	$185	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-27,753
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -84.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-50,139
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93304

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$854
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,042

Max offer price $99,012

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-37	+0% $-75	+5% $-113	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-152	+0% $-75	+5% $2	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-47	base $-75	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2308 Kelso Peak Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1752	$3,900	$2.23	4d	1	0.34mi
4215 Teal St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$1,395	$1.45	4d	3	0.40mi
4140 Teal St Apt 10 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	24d	1	0.42mi
4140 Teal St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	4d	1	0.42mi
4140 Teal St Unit 12A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	11d	1	0.42mi
2801 El Berrendo Ave Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,395	$1.61	15d	1	0.44mi
4605 Mount Everest Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,250	$1.54	4d	1	0.50mi
2313 San Lorenzo Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,095	$1.51	4d	1	0.53mi
2625 Miria Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,850	$1.41	24d	1	0.54mi
3605 Biltmore Ln Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	4d	1	0.62mi
4309 Rosewall St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,200	$1.62	4d	1	0.74mi
2805 Cambria Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1395	$2,050	$1.47	4d	1	0.83mi
3608 Balboa Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1051	$2,195	$2.09	4d	1	0.92mi
2109 Belvedere Ave Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	4d	1	0.94mi
1821 Lacey St Unit H Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	45d	1	0.94mi
1821 Lacey St Apt J Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	4d	1	0.95mi
3101 Coventry Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	945	$919	$0.97	4d	1	0.95mi
3605 Truman Ave Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1643	$2,295	$1.40	11d	1	1.03mi
4208 White Ln Unit A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,575	$1.31	4d	1	1.03mi
4208 White Ln Apt B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,575	$1.31	11d	1	1.03mi
1000 Pacheco Rd Unit 131 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,650	$1.51	4d	1	1.08mi
2704 Villalovos Ct Unit 2 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,650	$1.51	45d	1	1.08mi
4413 White Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,250	$1.80	22d	1	1.11mi
3316 Fiesta Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	45d	1	1.13mi
5516 Dustin St Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1507	$2,450	$1.63	45d	1	1.19mi
2600 Chandler Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1073	$1,495	$1.39	15d	1	1.19mi
4505 Gardenwood Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1385	$2,295	$1.66	4d	1	1.20mi
1409 Lindsay Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1049	$2,200	$2.10	4d	1	1.23mi
3600 Sampson Ct Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	945	$1,250	$1.32	24d	1	1.26mi
3600 Sampson Ct Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	936	$1,395	$1.49	45d	1	1.26mi
4513 Barry St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,975	$1.32	4d	1	1.27mi
2312 Castro Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,100	$1.86	4d	1	1.28mi
710 Chateau Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1729	$2,200	$1.27	45d	1	1.31mi
6304 Castleford St Unit 4 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	45d	1	1.31mi
6302 Castleford St Unit 4 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	4d	1	1.32mi
3401 Actis St Unit 15 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	45d	1	1.33mi
3013 Alma Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1151	$2,100	$1.82	4d	1	1.36mi
3401 Starwood Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	11d	1	1.36mi
6401 Castleford St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,500	$1.33	20d	1	1.36mi
4508 Planz Rd Apt A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	4d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $854 · $10,248/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $109,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − HOA: −$10,248
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable loss: −$2,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$521
• After-tax cash flow: $-382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,037
• Household income: $50,790
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2587.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 18% White 14% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.78%
• Current HPI: 397.9557
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.68%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $109,900 GEMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $129 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.