500 Burchwood Bay Rd · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$495,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1960 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Fully renovated and fully furnished four-unit investment property located in a well known area across from Sam’s Pizza and within eyeshot of Lake Hamilton. Property includes a renovated 2BR/1BA unit, updated 1BR/1BA unit and two remodeled efficiency units, all featuring modern interiors and separate short-term rental licenses. One long-term tenant currently in place provides immediate income, while the remaining units offer flexibility for STR, mid-term or traditional rentals. Turnkey opportunity with strong income potential in a prime Hot Springs location.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Investment property
• Updated unit

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• FULLY FURNISHED
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• RENOVATED UNIT
• UPDATED UNIT
• REMODELED EFFICIENCY UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.4 acre; Lot in a subdivision; Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Annual taxes reported

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Municipal electric; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Multifamily property (4 units); Residential zoning
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Slab and crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Gazebo; Paved road access; Brick and frame combination exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays
• Bedrooms: Four 1-bedroom units; One 2-bedroom unit
• Flooring: Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: Four 1-bath units
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer stays; Dryer stays; Ceiling fan; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $474k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $356k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hot Springs Junior Academy (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #166 of 201 statewide, top 84%, 815 students, 100% FRL, charter); Hot Springs World Class High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #252 of 292 statewide, top 87%, 739 students, 100% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,556/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1442% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $495k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $355,600 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-75,278
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-20,337
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 44.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,501/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,705

Max offer price $474,166

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $22	+0% $-118	+5% $-258	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-399	-5% $-258	+0% $-118	+5% $23	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $8	base $-118	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-377

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$927
▸ 3× units	1	1	$2,628
Total (4 units)			$3,556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Jennison Sq Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	45d	1	0.95mi
389 Lake Hamilton Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1137	$1,475	$1.30	45d	16	1.35mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $495,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $495,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $495,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $495,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $495,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $495,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $495,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $495,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $495,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    listed $495,000 Active 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Fully renovated and fully furnished four-unit investment property located in a well known area across from Sam’s Pizza and within eyeshot of Lake Hamilton. Property includes a renovated 2BR/1BA unit, updated 1BR/1BA unit and two remodeled efficiency units, all featuring modern interiors and separate short-term rental licenses. One long-term tenant currently in place provides immediate income, while the remaining units offer flexibility for STR, mid-term or traditional rentals. Turnkey opportunity with strong income potential in a prime Hot Springs location.

19. 2026-05-07
    historical
20. 2026-04-10
    price $499,000
21. 2026-04-10
    price $499,000
22. 2026-02-17
    listed $549,000 New Listing
23. 2025-07-01
    historical
24. 2025-03-21
    listed $499,500 New Listing
25. 2025-03-06
    historical
26. 2024-04-12
    price $469,500
27. 2024-04-09
    listed $459,000 New Listing
28. 2024-04-09
    price $469,500
29. 2021-05-03
    soldstatus $180,000 Sold
30. 2021-03-17
    historical
31. 2021-03-17
    historical Take Backups
32. 2020-09-15
    listed $200,000 New Listing
33. 2013-03-14
    historical
34. 2013-01-14
    listed $155,000
35. 2010-08-31
    soldstatus $145,000
36. 2008-04-28
    soldstatus $143,000
37. 1991-02-15
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,501 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,168 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,667/yr (+$139/mo · 111.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$1,501
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,414
• − Management: −$3,414
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$10,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,462
• After-tax cash flow: $1,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+607.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $495,000 HSBOR
• 2026-05-13 Listed $495,000 CARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $499,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $499,000 HSBOR
• 2026-02-17 Listed $549,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $499,500 CARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Price Changed $469,500 CARMLS
• 2024-04-09 Listed $459,000 CARMLS
• 2024-04-09 Price Changed $469,500 HSBOR
• 2021-05-03 Sold (MLS) $180,000 CARMLS
• 2021-03-17 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-03-17 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2020-09-15 Listed $200,000 CARMLS
• 2013-03-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2013-01-14 Listed $155,000 CARMLS
• 2010-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 1991-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,501 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.