18377 Fresh Lake Way · Boca Raton, FL 33498

$649,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1992 6,777 sqft lot Est $465k · 40% over $151/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED MODEL HOMEON A EXPANDED CORNER LOT.TILE IN ALL OF THE LIVING AREAS,OVERSIZED COVERED AND SCREENED PATIO,DOUBLE DRIVEWAY,CENTRAL VAC,INTERCOM,ALARM ,HURRICANE SHUTTERS AND MORE.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Attached garage
• Laundry area

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• ACCORDION SHUTTERS
• ENTRANCE FOYER
• LAUNDRY AREA
• SCREENED PATIO
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with restrictions and limits
• HOA & community: Community managed by Campbell Property Management; Monthly association fee; Community amenities include clubhouse, playground, pool, tennis courts, and pickleball courts; HOA fee covers cable TV and common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Covered parking (1); Additional open parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric service; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale property; West-facing
• Construction: Stucco/CBS construction; Barrel/Spanish tile roof with wood truss/rafter
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Screened patio/porch; Porch; Fenced yard; Corner lot with room for a pool; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning with ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings with vaulted ceiling(s); Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Closet cabinetry; Roman tub; French doors; Blinds and storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet inside (in kitchen, main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-733 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $520k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $473k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $473k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Boca Raton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Park Elementary School (math 80% / reading 81%, grade A+, #104 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 1,074 students, 23% FRL); Eagles Landing Middle School (math 66% / reading 67%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,508 students, 27% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 52% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $650k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $472,835 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $464,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10608 180th Pl S	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,857 (-3%)	9mo	$450,000	$242	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $91,302
• Equity at exit: $355,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $322,423
• Equity at exit: $603,656

Cash invested: $181,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33498

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,408
• Tax from tax record: −$639 /mo · $7,662/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$151
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$993
• Net cashflow: $-733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,656

Max offer price $520,405

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-365	-5% $-549	+0% $-733	+5% $-917	+10% $-1,101
Rent	-10% $-1,107	-5% $-920	+0% $-733	+5% $-546	+10% $-360
Rate	-1.0pp $-406	-0.5pp $-568	base $-733	+0.5pp $-901	+1.0pp $-1,073

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,475
• Closing costs: $19,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21461 Sawmill Ct Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2107	$4,100	$1.95	26d	1	0.28mi
18474 Old Princeton Ln Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2330	$4,800	$2.06	15d	1	0.53mi
10758 Lake Jasmine Dr Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	1927	$4,350	$2.26	26d	1	0.54mi
10781 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,600	$2.48	19d	1	0.59mi
10781 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,800	$2.62	20d	1	0.59mi
10780 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,500	$2.41	9d	1	0.59mi
10766 Crescendo Cir Unit X Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2223	$4,500	$2.02	26d	1	0.78mi
18965 Adagio Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1795	$5,250	$2.92	26d	1	0.85mi
18298 102nd Way S Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1853	$6,500	$3.51	26d	1	1.04mi
9975 Boca Gardens Trl Unit A Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$3,300	$2.59	9d	1	1.39mi
9928 Moss Pond Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	14d	1	1.47mi
9928 Moss Pond Dr Unit 9928 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	16d	1	1.47mi
9928 Moss Pond Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $151 · $1,812/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $649,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $649,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $649,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $649,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $649,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $649,900 Active
16. 2023-11-18
    historical $3,800
17. 2023-11-03
    listed $3,800
18. 2002-12-26
    soldstatus $215,000
19. 2002-12-20
    soldstatus $215,000 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED MODEL HOMEON A EXPANDED CORNER LOT.TILE IN ALL OF THE LIVING AREAS,OVERSIZED COVERED AND SCREENED PATIO,DOUBLE DRIVEWAY,CENTRAL VAC,INTERCOM,ALARM ,HURRICANE SHUTTERS AND MORE.

20. 2002-11-20
    historical 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED MODEL HOMEON A EXPANDED CORNER LOT.TILE IN ALL OF THE LIVING AREAS,OVERSIZED COVERED AND SCREENED PATIO,DOUBLE DRIVEWAY,CENTRAL VAC,INTERCOM,ALARM ,HURRICANE SHUTTERS AND MORE.

21. 2002-11-15
    listed $224,900 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED MODEL HOMEON A EXPANDED CORNER LOT.TILE IN ALL OF THE LIVING AREAS,OVERSIZED COVERED AND SCREENED PATIO,DOUBLE DRIVEWAY,CENTRAL VAC,INTERCOM,ALARM ,HURRICANE SHUTTERS AND MORE.

22. 1992-09-10
    soldstatus $124,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,662 · $639/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,662 · $639/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,405
• − Property taxes: −$7,662
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,539
• − Management: −$4,539
• − HOA: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$18,906
• Taxable loss: −$20,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,889
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Boca Raton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #3070

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 250,102
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,853
• Household income: $146,765
• Rent vs Own: 5.3% rent · 94.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 65.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Scotch-Irish 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Current HPI: 325.4026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+424.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $649,900 Beaches MLS
• 2023-11-18 Rental Removed $3,800 RMLSFL
• 2023-11-03 Listed for Rent $3,800 RMLSFL
• 2002-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-20 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Beaches MLS
• 2002-11-20 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2002-11-15 Listed $224,900 Beaches MLS
• 1992-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,662 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.