Kitson Plan · Eagle Lake, FL 33839

$264,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This new three-bedroom home delivers convenient single-story living with a modern, low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for easy everyday living and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share a private hallway with a full bathroom upon entry, and the generous owner's suite provides a secluded retreat at the back of the home, complete with a private full bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lavish owner's suite
• Modern design
• Full bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• MODERN DESIGN
• LOW-MAINTENANCE DESIGN
• LAVISH OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; List price: 263,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Kitson); Listed as new construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,424 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Kitson

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in FL, #3,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,423 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,232
• Equity at exit: $100,726

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $48,036
• Equity at exit: $142,333

Cash invested: $74,057 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33839

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,387
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,967/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,314

Max offer price $235,971

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-106	+0% $-197	+5% $-288	+10% $-380
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-279	+0% $-197	+5% $-116	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-130	base $-197	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,122
• Closing costs: $7,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3443 Rover Rd Eloise, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	4d	1	0.04mi
2782 Pioneer Trl Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,940	$1.31	24d	1	0.09mi
2831 Pioneer Trl Eloise, FL	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	4d	1	0.10mi
2831 Pioneer Trl Eloise, FL	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	11d	1	0.10mi
2711 Pioneer Trl Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,050	$1.12	24d	1	0.15mi
1204 Deepwater Cir Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,900	$1.32	15d	1	0.31mi
1975 Wilder Way Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,100	$1.21	11d	1	0.38mi
1469 Deepwater Cir Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,000	$1.37	24d	1	0.43mi
1033 Holden Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	15d	1	0.49mi
948 Craftsman Rd Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,895	$1.22	4d	1	0.60mi
519 Patton Loop Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,998	$1.28	4d	1	1.07mi
212 Pershing St Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,100	$1.15	24d	1	1.12mi
217 Windsor Reserve Dr Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1839	$1,896	$1.03	4d	1	1.29mi
209 Windsor Reserve Dr Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1839	$1,826	$0.99	4d	1	1.29mi
910 Sun Burst Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	24d	1	1.32mi
418 Reina Way Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,666	$1.23	22d	1	1.34mi
523 Crown Rose Dr Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1839	$1,951	$1.06	13d	1	1.36mi
303 Corbel Ln Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,731	$1.28	4d	1	1.37mi
588 Crown Rose Dr Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,646	$1.22	15d	1	1.37mi
531 Crown Rose Dr Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1839	$1,746	$0.95	22d	1	1.38mi
328 Corbel Ln Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,676	$1.05	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,490 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,490 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,490 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,490 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,490 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,490 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,490 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $264,490 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $263,990 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $263,990 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $263,990 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $263,990 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 443-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $263,990 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,816
• − Property taxes: −$3,967
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
• − Management: −$1,982
• − Depreciation: −$7,694
• Taxable loss: −$6,992
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,678
• After-tax cash flow: $-687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eagle Lake, FL
• City population: 4,397
• Population (ZIP): 4,397

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 8% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 23% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 317.0642
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B