3625 Dahlia Ln · Middle River, MD 21220

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Manufactured · 185 Days on market

Built 2008 $91/sqft · 52% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Williams Estates in Middle River. ! This three bedroom, two bath home has the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and affordability. Relax on the cozy covered front porch on warm summer nights. Entertaining is easy in this open concept living room/dining room. The eat-in kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, lots of counter space with tons of storage The large primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and an en suite which includes a double sink and shower. Two other bedrooms share a hall bath. A laundry room with full size washer and dryer leads to side entrance with an outdoor shed. Neutral colors throughout. NEW HVAC installed. The community includes a playground, dog park, fitness center and more. Conveniently located to I-95 and I-695 makes travel quick to work, recreation and local attractions. All buyers must be park approved. Ground rent is currently $1120 a month.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Walk-in closet
• En suite

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $957 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.30%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,348
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 52.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $38,539
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $93,956
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,033	-5% $995	+0% $957	+5% $919	+10% $881
Rent	-10% $786	-5% $872	+0% $957	+5% $1,043	+10% $1,129
Rate	-1.0pp $1,013	-0.5pp $985	base $957	+0.5pp $929	+1.0pp $900

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3736 White Pine Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	741	$1,310	$1.77	2d	21	0.94mi
37 Alberge Ln Middle River, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,052	$2.21	2d	8	0.97mi
11550 Crossroads Cir Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,849	$3.19	3d	15	0.99mi
6221 Greenleigh Ave Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,957	$2.79	3d	16	1.15mi
3924 Cutty Sark Rd Middle River, MD	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,699	$1.44	25d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2025-12-18
    listed $110,000 Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Welcome to Williams Estates in Middle River. ! This three bedroom, two bath home has the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and affordability. Relax on the cozy covered front porch on warm summer nights. Entertaining is easy in this open concept living room/dining room. The eat-in kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, lots of counter space with tons of storage The large primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and an en suite which includes a double sink and shower. Two other bedrooms share a hall bath. A laundry room with full size washer and dryer leads to side entrance with an outdoor shed. Neutral colors throughout. NEW HVAC installed. The community includes a playground, dog park, fitness center and more. Conveniently located to I-95 and I-695 makes travel quick to work, recreation and local attractions. All buyers must be park approved. Ground rent is currently $1120 a month.

16. 2024-03-13
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    Welcome to Williams Estates in Middle River. ! This three bedroom, two bath home has the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and affordability. Relax on the cozy covered front porch on warm summer nights. Entertaining is easy in this open concept living room/dining room. The eat-in kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, lots of counter space with tons of storage The large primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and an en suite which includes a double sink and shower. Two other bedrooms share a hall bath. A laundry room with full size washer and dryer leads to side entrance with an outdoor shed. Neutral colors throughout. The community includes a playground, dog park, fitness center and more. Conveniently located to I-95 and I-695 makes travel quick to work, recreation and local attractions. All buyers must be park approved. Ground rent is currently $1002 a month.

17. 2024-02-02
    status Pending 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    Welcome to Williams Estates in Middle River. ! This three bedroom, two bath home has the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and affordability. Relax on the cozy covered front porch on warm summer nights. Entertaining is easy in this open concept living room/dining room. The eat-in kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, lots of counter space with tons of storage The large primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and an en suite which includes a double sink and shower. Two other bedrooms share a hall bath. A laundry room with full size washer and dryer leads to side entrance with an outdoor shed. Neutral colors throughout. The community includes a playground, dog park, fitness center and more. Conveniently located to I-95 and I-695 makes travel quick to work, recreation and local attractions. All buyers must be park approved. Ground rent is currently $1002 a month.

18. 2024-01-15
    price $92,000 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    Welcome to Williams Estates in Middle River. ! This three bedroom, two bath home has the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and affordability. Relax on the cozy covered front porch on warm summer nights. Entertaining is easy in this open concept living room/dining room. The eat-in kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, lots of counter space with tons of storage The large primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and an en suite which includes a double sink and shower. Two other bedrooms share a hall bath. A laundry room with full size washer and dryer leads to side entrance with an outdoor shed. Neutral colors throughout. The community includes a playground, dog park, fitness center and more. Conveniently located to I-95 and I-695 makes travel quick to work, recreation and local attractions. All buyers must be park approved. Ground rent is currently $1002 a month.

19. 2023-12-26
    listed $97,000 Active 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    Welcome to Williams Estates in Middle River. ! This three bedroom, two bath home has the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and affordability. Relax on the cozy covered front porch on warm summer nights. Entertaining is easy in this open concept living room/dining room. The eat-in kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, lots of counter space with tons of storage The large primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and an en suite which includes a double sink and shower. Two other bedrooms share a hall bath. A laundry room with full size washer and dryer leads to side entrance with an outdoor shed. Neutral colors throughout. The community includes a playground, dog park, fitness center and more. Conveniently located to I-95 and I-695 makes travel quick to work, recreation and local attractions. All buyers must be park approved. Ground rent is currently $1002 a month.

20. 2016-01-27
    soldstatus $57,500
21. 2016-01-27
    soldstatus $57,500 Sold
22. 2016-01-06
    status Contract
23. 2016-01-06
    historical
24. 2015-12-07
    listed $64,000 Active
25. 2015-12-07
    listed $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $10,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,485
• After-tax cash flow: $9,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+71.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-13 Sold (MLS) $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-01-15 Price Changed $92,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-26 Listed $97,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-01-27 Sold (MLS) $57,500 MRIS
• 2016-01-27 Sold (MLS) $57,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-01-06 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-01-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-12-07 Listed $64,000 MRIS
• 2015-12-07 Listed $64,000 BRIGHT MLS