434 Watts · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 255 Days on market

Built 1997 7,971 sqft lot $214/sqft · 22% below area Est $275k · 22% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in a highly desirable location near Canyon Lake! Featuring a spacious 1-car garage, double driveway, and large covered carport, there's plenty of parking for family and guests. The open-concept living area includes a cozy wood-burning fireplace, while the kitchen offers abundant counter space-perfect for cooking and entertaining. Retreat to the private primary suite, with a secondary bedroom ideal for guests or a home office. Just minutes from Comal Park, boating, fishing, and waterfront dining, plus less than 30 minutes to both US-281 and I-35 for easy commuting. Whether you're looking for full-time living or a relaxing weekend getaway, this home has it all! (Approx. 1,005 sq. ft.)

Key facts

• Access to golf
• Tennis courts
• Private retreat

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• ACCESS TO GOLF
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,699 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,283
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -21.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
434 Watts	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,005 (0%)	0mo	$215,000	$214	100
1344 Springwater	0.74mi	2/2.0	992 (-1%)	9mo	$240,000	$242	56
1336 Charter Oak Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,110 (+10%)	2mo	$240,000	$216	55
155 Poolside Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,072 (+7%)	16mo	$200,000	$187	52
1813 Trailridge Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,098 (+9%)	14mo	$198,500	$181	41
1525 Hillcrest Frst	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,102 (+10%)	22mo	$275,000	$250	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-57,749
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-91,174
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,912/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,884

Max offer price $163,720

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
421 Watts Ln Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1309	$1,450	$1.11	10d	1	0.08mi
421 Watts Ln Unit B4 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1309	$1,250	$0.95	23d	1	0.08mi
1618 Valley Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,700	$1.29	43d	1	0.66mi
1618 Valley Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,700	$1.29	17d	1	0.66mi
1475 Bonnyview Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	23d	1	0.71mi
662 Hillclimb Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.5	1345	$1,950	$1.45	43d	1	0.71mi
1142 Amanda Unit 1351227P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$5,097	$4.15	12d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in a highly desirable location near Canyon Lake! Featuring a spacious 1-car garage, double driveway, and large covered carport, there's plenty of parking for family and guests. The open-concept living area includes a cozy wood-burning fireplace, while the kitchen offers abundant counter space-perfect for cooking and entertaining. Retreat to the private primary suite, with a secondary bedroom ideal for guests or a home office. Just minutes from Comal Park, boating, fishing, and waterfront dining, plus less than 30 minutes to both US-281 and I-35 for easy commuting. Whether you're looking for full-time living or a relaxing weekend getaway, this home has it all! (Approx. 1,005 sq. ft.)

2. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Option 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in a highly desirable location near Canyon Lake! Featuring a spacious 1-car garage, double driveway, and large covered carport, there's plenty of parking for family and guests. The open-concept living area includes a cozy wood-burning fireplace, while the kitchen offers abundant counter space-perfect for cooking and entertaining. Retreat to the private primary suite, with a secondary bedroom ideal for guests or a home office. Just minutes from Comal Park, boating, fishing, and waterfront dining, plus less than 30 minutes to both US-281 and I-35 for easy commuting. Whether you're looking for full-time living or a relaxing weekend getaway, this home has it all! (Approx. 1,005 sq. ft.)

3. 2026-04-15
   price $215,000 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in a highly desirable location near Canyon Lake! Featuring a spacious 1-car garage, double driveway, and large covered carport, there's plenty of parking for family and guests. The open-concept living area includes a cozy wood-burning fireplace, while the kitchen offers abundant counter space-perfect for cooking and entertaining. Retreat to the private primary suite, with a secondary bedroom ideal for guests or a home office. Just minutes from Comal Park, boating, fishing, and waterfront dining, plus less than 30 minutes to both US-281 and I-35 for easy commuting. Whether you're looking for full-time living or a relaxing weekend getaway, this home has it all! (Approx. 1,005 sq. ft.)

4. 2026-01-25
   price $229,900 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in a highly desirable location near Canyon Lake! Featuring a spacious 1-car garage, double driveway, and large covered carport, there's plenty of parking for family and guests. The open-concept living area includes a cozy wood-burning fireplace, while the kitchen offers abundant counter space-perfect for cooking and entertaining. Retreat to the private primary suite, with a secondary bedroom ideal for guests or a home office. Just minutes from Comal Park, boating, fishing, and waterfront dining, plus less than 30 minutes to both US-281 and I-35 for easy commuting. Whether you're looking for full-time living or a relaxing weekend getaway, this home has it all! (Approx. 1,005 sq. ft.)

5. 2025-10-06
   historical
6. 2025-09-18
   price $232,750 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in a highly desirable location near Canyon Lake! Featuring a spacious 1-car garage, double driveway, and large covered carport, there's plenty of parking for family and guests. The open-concept living area includes a cozy wood-burning fireplace, while the kitchen offers abundant counter space-perfect for cooking and entertaining. Retreat to the private primary suite, with a secondary bedroom ideal for guests or a home office. Just minutes from Comal Park, boating, fishing, and waterfront dining, plus less than 30 minutes to both US-281 and I-35 for easy commuting. Whether you're looking for full-time living or a relaxing weekend getaway, this home has it all! (Approx. 1,005 sq. ft.)

7. 2025-08-23
   listed $233,333 Active
8. 2025-08-22
   listed $233,333 New 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhome in a highly desirable location near Canyon Lake! Featuring a spacious 1-car garage, double driveway, and large covered carport, there's plenty of parking for family and guests. The open-concept living area includes a cozy wood-burning fireplace, while the kitchen offers abundant counter space-perfect for cooking and entertaining. Retreat to the private primary suite, with a secondary bedroom ideal for guests or a home office. Just minutes from Comal Park, boating, fishing, and waterfront dining, plus less than 30 minutes to both US-281 and I-35 for easy commuting. Whether you're looking for full-time living or a relaxing weekend getaway, this home has it all! (Approx. 1,005 sq. ft.)

9. 2025-08-18
   historical
10. 2025-08-09
    historical Active Option
11. 2025-08-02
    price $233,799
12. 2025-07-25
    price $234,799
13. 2025-06-13
    price $234,900
14. 2025-06-03
    price $245,900
15. 2025-04-24
    price $249,900
16. 2025-04-08
    price $259,900
17. 2025-03-28
    price $265,000
18. 2025-03-27
    listed $260,000 New
19. 2023-01-17
    soldstatus
20. 2023-01-05
    status Pending
21. 2022-10-31
    listed $220,000 Active
22. 1999-10-28
    soldstatus
23. 1997-03-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,912 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,023/yr (+$85/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,912
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$7,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $215,000 LERA
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $229,900 LERA
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $232,750 LERA
• 2025-08-23 Listed $233,333 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $233,333 LERA
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-08-09 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $233,799 LERA
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $234,799 LERA
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $234,900 LERA
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $245,900 LERA
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $249,900 LERA
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $259,900 LERA
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $265,000 LERA
• 2025-03-27 Listed $260,000 LERA
• 2023-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-05 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-10-31 Listed $220,000 CTXMLS
• 1999-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,912 · -9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.